TBPN

Shifts In The Creator Economy, Kylie Jenner x Meta, GPT 5.6 Limited Release | Diet TBPN

32 min
Jun 27, 202621 days ago
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Summary

The hosts discuss shifts in the creator economy following Cannes Lions, exploring the tension between independent creators and large media organizations as production costs rise. They cover Meta's smart glasses momentum with the Kylie Jenner partnership, OpenAI's GPT-5.6 limited government-restricted release, and Meta's internal pivot toward AI coding and data labeling. Additional topics include biosecurity risks from advancing open-source AI models, OpenAI's custom Jalapeno chip, and Bill Gates and Rockefeller funding a respiratory virus elimination initiative.

Insights
  • The creator economy is not trending toward a single model — a sorting process is underway where some creators thrive independently with high EBITDA margins while others will leverage independence as leverage for better contracts inside traditional organizations.
  • Legacy media companies like the New York Times are finally cracking creator-native platforms like YouTube by mastering packaging, thumbnails, and production quality — closing the gap with independent creators.
  • Meta's smart glasses have sold 7 million units with $2.1–3B in estimated gross retail sales, yet receive almost no credit from capital markets — suggesting hardware is undervalued relative to software/ads businesses in Meta's portfolio.
  • The open-source AI frontier advancing to within six months of closed-source models creates an asymmetric biosecurity risk: if deploying countermeasures takes longer than deploying threats, society could be dangerously exposed.
  • OpenAI's government-restricted GPT-5.6 rollout and custom Jalapeno chip signal a rapid compression of the chip design cycle and a deepening vertical integration strategy, including locking up 40% of global DRAM wafer output through 2029.
Trends
Creator economy bifurcation: high-cost polished shows vs. lean independent operations with 80–90% EBITDA marginsLegacy media mastering creator-native content formats on YouTube, narrowing the gap with independent creatorsSmart glasses moving from niche to mainstream, with Meta holding 80%+ market share at 7M units soldGovernment intervention in AI model releases becoming a new regulatory pattern, case-by-case rather than rule-basedOpen-source AI models approaching parity with closed-source frontier models within a six-month lagAI-assisted chip design compressing hardware development cycles from years to monthsVertical supply chain integration by AI labs — OpenAI securing raw DRAM wafer supply through 2029Prediction markets expanding from political events to sports gambling, with sentiment shifting negativelyCelebrity-brand AI hardware partnerships (Kylie Jenner x Meta, Robert Downey Jr. x Snap) emerging as a consumer adoption strategyLarge tech companies forcibly redeploying engineers to AI data labeling, signaling a bottleneck in human feedback for model training
Topics
Creator Economy Independence vs. ConsolidationSmart Glasses Market Adoption and MonetizationMeta Kylie Jenner Smart Glasses PartnershipOpenAI GPT-5.6 Government-Restricted ReleaseAI Model Distillation and Open-Source Security RisksBiosecurity Risks from Advanced AI ModelsOpenAI Jalapeno Custom AI Chip LaunchMeta Internal AI Pivot and Engineer ReassignmentPrediction Markets App Development by MetaLegacy Media YouTube Content StrategyAI Safety Regulation and White House OversightDRAM Supply Chain Vertical Integration by OpenAIGTA 6 Development Cost and TimelineRespiratory Virus Elimination Initiative (Intercept)Cannes Lions Creator Economy Discussions
Companies
Meta
Discussed for smart glasses sales momentum, Kylie Jenner partnership, AI coding pivot, and a new prediction markets app.
OpenAI
Covered for GPT-5.6 limited government-restricted release, custom Jalapeno chip, and DRAM supply chain deals.
Snap
Mentioned for $2,200 smart glasses specs and a reported $100M Robert Downey Jr. partnership deal.
Anthropic
Referenced for Mythos model government oversight, NSA red-teaming, and Alibaba distillation controversy.
New York Times
Cited as a legacy media company successfully cracking YouTube with high-quality podcast packaging and production.
Broadcom
Named as the chip design partner for OpenAI's new Jalapeno LLM-purpose-built chip.
Alibaba
Mentioned for allegedly distilling Anthropic's Claude model multiple times, prompting tighter model access controls.
Apple
Apple Vision Pro discussed as a high-quality but cumbersome VR headset, contrasted with Meta smart glasses.
DraftKings
Referenced in context of a user winning $6M on the platform, illustrating prediction market user engagement.
Polymarket
Named as a leading prediction market platform that Meta's new Arena app could compete with.
Kalshi
Cited alongside Polymarket as a major prediction market platform facing potential Meta competition.
Qualcomm
Mentioned via its division head commenting on the inevitability of all glasses becoming smart glasses.
Samsung
Briefly noted as a smart glasses manufacturer using Qualcomm chips alongside Meta and Snap.
Google
Google Glass referenced as an early failed smart glasses attempt; Google named as an AI competitor to Meta.
Rockefeller Foundation
Co-funding Intercept, a $500M initiative with Bill Gates to eliminate respiratory viruses.
People
Andrew Ross Sorkin
Cited for raising the creator economy consolidation vs. independence trade-off debate at Cannes Lions.
Mark Zuckerberg
Discussed for directing Meta's AI coding pivot, prediction markets app, and smart glasses strategy.
Kylie Jenner
Partnered with Meta on a new smart glasses line, cited as a top global influencer driving consumer adoption.
Robert Downey Jr.
Reported to be in talks for a $100M partnership with Snap for smart glasses promotion.
MrBeast
Named at the top of Forbes creator earnings list with $300M in gross revenue, noted for reinvesting heavily.
Joe Rogan
Contrasted with MrBeast as a creator with large deals who keeps low production costs and high margins.
Brian Johnson
His likeness appeared on a French cigarette warning pack, noted as an ironic anti-smoking image.
Ezra Klein
His NYT podcast cited as a success story for legacy media cracking YouTube via strong packaging.
Ross Douthat
Mentioned alongside Ezra Klein as a NYT podcaster succeeding on YouTube with high production quality.
Dan Shipper
Referenced as someone who would want to vibe-check GPT-5.6 but lacks access under the restricted rollout.
Alex Heath
Scooped the Snap and Robert Downey Jr. $100M partnership deal while at Cannes Lions.
Theo Von
Cited for publicly criticizing data centers and AI companies owning personal data.
Bill Gates
Co-funding Intercept with Rockefeller, a $500M initiative to eliminate respiratory viruses.
Emmanuel Macron
Mentioned as having a past dispute with host Jordyn; France under his leadership banned nicotine pouches.
Quotes
"I don't think it's a one size fits all approach here. I think it's more of a sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of large organizations."
Host
"If it wasn't Meta, we'd be like, wow, this company has insane product market fit. Yeah. Selling 7 million units of a new product."
Host
"The open source frontier advances, it feels less and less reasonable to keep closed source models locked away."
Host (quoting OpenAI statement)
"One engineer told this reporter that the whole situation feels like the movie the Hunger Games when tributes are randomly selected and then removed from their environment to something completely different."
Host (quoting reporter)
"If manufacturing the virus is much shorter than manufacturing the antivirus, you could wind up in a situation where the frontier is only six months behind and you haven't patched your society yet."
Host
Full Transcript
3 Speakers
Speaker A

We're back.

0:00

Speaker B

France.

0:00

Speaker A

We miss you guys. Miss you guys a lot.

0:01

Speaker B

Yeah, it was rough.

0:03

Speaker A

It's genuinely brutal. We feel deeply unwell by around 1pm if we haven't gone live regardless of the time zone.

0:04

Speaker B

Sweating and shaking is crazy.

0:12

Speaker A

Yeah, it is a. I mean the.

0:14

Speaker C

Yeah.

0:16

Speaker A

And the withdrawals. I mean maybe it would get better after a few weeks, but yeah, the symptoms are brutal.

0:16

Speaker B

Anyway, it was a high stakes trip. Of course, Jordyn has battled with French president Emmanuel Macron in the past and then appeared to be a direct shot at me. France recently banned nicotine pouches fully. Very controversial.

0:22

Speaker A

Pretty much all oral nicotine products banned.

0:39

Speaker B

Yeah. So as of April, Cannes Lions. It used to be mostly about creative advertisements giving awards for creativity. And there's a big focus on the creator economy. It's not packed with a list celebrities, but it feels like everyone has a following of some sort. And that was is a big point of discussion. Like there was one level of conversation that was just like creators are the future. Everyone's heard this pitch a million times. But the bigger discussion was something that Andrew Ross Sorkin from Squawk Box CNBC Dealbook mentioned talking about the trade offs between independence and consolidation. You've talked about this before. Just the idea of a roll up of independent substackers. Where is the right economy of scale in the creator economy? Maybe not everyone should be independent. Maybe not everyone should be with a large organization. And this trade off sort of interesting to dig into as we see both creators go bigger and produce more expensive shows. And then also the legacy media companies are getting better at social media type content. So we can kind of dig into this. I'm flying back from Cannes, something I've been thinking about. I was taken aback by how some of what I thought were most success. The most successful influencers say that they need to spend so much money to keep up that they're not making the kind of headline popping numbers we often read about. And he asks for thoughts. I think there's a few things happening. One is the big transition from independent creators pivoting from making content to making shows. And you can look at Subway Takes in this, in this way. The other show is keep the meter running. Much more produced, much more edited, much more costly to produce. But you're still faced with some of the awkwardness around how do you actually monetize that? There isn't a logical ad break, although I think there should be in a three minute Subway Takes video, a three minute episode. I think that it would be fine to have a 5 to 10 second mid roll in the middle of that. But that has not been done like that. Floodgate hasn't opened yet. So most creators are doing. It's either a really polished vertical video about their own content and then they'll do a promoted post. That's another 32nd, 62nd multi minute vertical video in their same style but purely sponsored content. And a lot of those videos don't go as viral. And so you have this awkward trade off where the content that's great that people want can't be monetized. So you have to do one and one. It'd be a little bit tricky. Like part of the way our show works is that we're just talking about whatever and then we'll tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era. Unlock seamless real time experiences and new value. With Cisco it would be different if we had to do every other. Every other episode is just purely about Cisco and then we go back to about just the news and talking and so that's. That's something that's like starting to evolve in those higher cost structures. I think that they still have more enduring.

0:41

Speaker A

Yeah. For value out with their top creators list and yeah earnings. Mr. Beast was at the top with 300 million. Huge I would imagine.

3:31

Speaker B

But that's revenue that.

3:39

Speaker A

Yeah, like earnings is is not the right word here. It should just be gross revenue.

3:40

Speaker B

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

3:46

Speaker A

I have no idea what Jimmy's margins actually look like on that 300. It would appear he's spending like he's

3:47

Speaker B

obsessed with reinvesting for the.

3:54

Speaker A

Yeah, yeah. That's always been a part of his.

3:55

Speaker B

As opposed to Joe Rogan who has these big deals and he seems completely content to be in a tiny set. And yes, people are still breaking through, but they're breaking through with new, more polished products that of course have higher costs. Simultaneously, traditional media companies are starting to dial in content strategies for traditionally creator led platforms. I think the New York Times has done a fantastic job. Here you have the Ezra Klein show and Ross Douthit who are sort of like the left and right perspectives. And their shows have become really successful on YouTube a lot due to the packaging. They understand how to get a good title and thumbnail together. The editing, the production values are really, really high quality. And so those podcasts do very well on YouTube in a way that other shows from legacy media companies. It's been hard for them to break through traditionally, but they certainly have. And it's interesting that it's recent.

3:57

Speaker A

The other thing that was interesting France appeared to put Brian Johnson on a pack of cigarettes. Pull up this image that does look like Brian Johnson. Really out of pocket to take an asset.

4:50

Speaker B

It works pretty well though. Don't die, don't smoke. You know, it's his message. I think he would approve this, but

5:07

Speaker A

I saw this and I had to take a picture because I was like, is it actually uncanny? He has like a lot of pictures of himself.

5:14

Speaker B

It does look like that.

5:21

Speaker A

Down like that, eyes closed.

5:22

Speaker B

Also, this looks like a man being put in a body bag. But at the same time it looks like just a man who got a. Getting a beautiful night's sleep, getting tucked in after a nice couple of heaters. He ripped a couple darts, had a couple years, crushed a couple cold ones, and now he's ready to get put to bed by someone.

5:24

Speaker A

Yeah, this is actually much more tame than some of the other.

5:41

Speaker B

Some of them are some of the gruesome, like so gruesome. Showing like the X rays of cancer patients and like black lungs and stuff like this is pretty mild. If you look like this guy after you're smoking a whole pack, like you're doing pretty well. The end state of, of this debate, it's, it's interesting. There's a little bit of grass is always greener on the other side. Going on with independent creators thinking, oh, maybe it'd be better if I was with a larger organization and then vice versa with a lot of the folks inside organization, big organizations saying, ah, if I left I could probably make so much more money. I don't think it's one size fits all approach here. I think it's more of a sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of large organizations like those 80 to 90% EBITDA margins still exist for certain categories. Certain.

5:44

Speaker A

Look at obsession. Right. It's like low margin, highly competitive, but it's hits driven. So you can have one breakout hit.

6:27

Speaker B

That's a great example.

6:34

Speaker A

And you know.

6:35

Speaker B

Yeah.

6:36

Speaker A

Have insane margins.

6:36

Speaker B

Yeah. So I think it's more of this like sorting process. Some creators will find elegant business models outside of traditional organizations. Others will probably wind up leveraging the possibility of going independent into more meaningful contracts within traditional media organizations. But it's, it's increasingly clear that a one size fits all approach, perhaps with a tagline like independent creators are the future. I don't think that quite fits anymore. To each their own. I think everyone sort of needs to find their own way and figure out what's right for them. Smart glasses are inevitable. But what or who are they for says Christopher Mims in the Wall Street Journal. This is on the back of the new Meta glasses that launched. Christopher Mims says the deluge of smart glasses has begun. Has. Feels like. I don't know if it's a deluge. It feels more like just a trickle or like a steady stream. But maybe I've been following it too closely. I think that's all of my problems with analyzing this category. And we'll get into that. My criticisms are, like, very odd, technical.

6:37

Speaker A

Yeah. And it's. So Meta has been selling a lot of glasses. The products are.

7:39

Speaker B

The products are dozens, hundreds.

7:43

Speaker A

No, they've been selling. I believe they've already. I believe they're already in the. In the. In the millions of units of.

7:45

Speaker B

Not millions of units. Not the hundreds of millions of dollars.

7:50

Speaker A

I believe so.

7:53

Speaker B

Ben, I think it's getting. I work on factor. I agree with you. I think it's getting material. I think it's getting material.

7:55

Speaker A

What I was going to say is that it's for products that are functionally like a great pair of glasses with a camera attached. Right. These are not like, I don't see a lot of people talking about like, oh, I'm replacing AirPods entirely with these E. Even if that is one.

8:00

Speaker B

Is that just because.

8:15

Speaker A

And that is also with being able to sell through a one of one ad unit on the greatest distribution platform

8:16

Speaker B

in history, they're going up against stiff competition. Like, the Apple Vision Pro is so good that it's like, job's finished. We have the Apple Vision Pro.

8:24

Speaker A

Why should we? It was so funny. So I never tried the Apple Vision Pro until this trip. And I asked John, I was like, hey, can I take him for a spin? And you were like, oh, it's kind of a hassle to set up.

8:33

Speaker B

It is. You have to, like, put it.

8:46

Speaker A

But John was like, no, I want Jordy to experience this.

8:48

Speaker B

Yeah.

8:51

Speaker A

And so we go through this whole, like, hassle of setting it up and I'm like 20 seconds into the dinosaur demo and the flight attendant comes up and is like tapping me on the.

8:52

Speaker C

Yeah.

9:02

Speaker A

Like actually getting out of virtual reality. It was like the Audacity.

9:02

Speaker B

And I think the question was just like, are those cool or something. It wasn't. It wasn't like, sir, you need to put on your seatbelt or something.

9:07

Speaker A

It was like I was fully immersed and it completely ruined it for me.

9:13

Speaker B

And what's funny is like, the whole pitch for the Apple Vision Pro was like, you don't need to take it off to talk to somebody because it will show the eyes and. No, Tyler's on his way back.

9:17

Speaker A

You guys went to France for raising.

9:26

Speaker B

Raising canes. Yes. Raising can. Raising can is good.

9:28

Speaker A

Yes. Tyler got left at cdg.

9:33

Speaker B

Yeah. Yeah.

9:35

Speaker A

Shoddity.

9:36

Speaker B

But Timu Temu.

9:37

Speaker C

Tyler, I have the answer for the Meta glasses.

9:42

Speaker B

Okay. Yeah. How we doing?

9:48

Speaker C

So, since 2025, there's been 7 million plus sold across op and meta. $2 million was just the Ray Bans.

9:49

Speaker A

Okay, wait, 2 million units?

9:57

Speaker C

2 million units.

9:59

Speaker B

Okay.

10:00

Speaker C

And that's the estimated gross retail sales was 2.1 to 3 billion estimates.

10:00

Speaker B

That's pretty good.

10:04

Speaker A

Yeah. John, the way you were framing it, it was like, yeah, we've sold 7 million. And you're like, $7 million. And it's like, no, it's 7. 7 million. Like, it's a lot of units. Yeah, a lot of units.

10:05

Speaker B

It's getting there.

10:16

Speaker A

And if it wasn't Meta.

10:17

Speaker B

Yep.

10:19

Speaker A

We'd be like, wow, this company has, like, insane product market fit.

10:19

Speaker B

Yeah.

10:23

Speaker A

Selling 7 million units of a new.

10:24

Speaker B

Yeah. If it was our Ring or Whoop or something like that, we'd be very impressed. Yeah. I think you're 100% correct.

10:26

Speaker A

And it would be like. It could probably be, like, a standalone

10:32

Speaker B

public company, but people would still be slamming it for it for being, like, way worse than the Apple Vision Pro in terms of watching old films. I watched Master and Commander on it. It was great. Anyway, let's go back to Christopher Mims in the Wall Street Journal. He says, at the low end, there's a new line of Meta glasses, which start at 299 and play well with Vision benefit plans. Interesting. So you can buy them with insurance for another hundred dollars. There's a pair aimed at fans of Kylie Jenner. We saw these in action, and they looked great. And I think reviews are very high quality.

10:35

Speaker A

If I hadn't seen the launch, I wouldn't have noticed that they were matted glasses at all.

11:09

Speaker B

Yes.

11:15

Speaker A

I would have just assumed they were

11:15

Speaker B

like, it has this jewel. You can see it. It's that small, white, like, glint right there. And I was so confused by this. But this is purely a me problem because I assume that that was a recording light or some sort of display. Because if you look at the Meta Ray Ban displays, you'll see that there's slight grooves in the glass for forming the beams to show you the display. And so I was like, oh, that's a smart feature. But it's, in fact, not. It's purely aesthetic. And people who are in the market love this I was confused by it, but I think I might be the only person that is confused by it. So I don't think it's a problem whatsoever. But Metas is $800 and specs from Snap is $2,200. They are so chunky, they look like something you might see in a Prada ad and never in real life. Silicon Valley has been trying to make smart glasses happen for more than a decade. Remember Google Glass, Facebook and Instagram, Parent meta platforms has captured more than 80% of this market. Not bad. But in 2025 that meant selling just 7 million pairs of glasses. By comparison, the world buys more than 100 million smart watches a year and more than a billion.

11:16

Speaker A

What does it say about like the broad investor views on smart glasses overall If Meta has 80% of this like emerging category that's selling 7 million units and they get like basically zero credit for it.

12:28

Speaker B

When I see 7 million pairs of glasses compared to 100 million smart watches, I feel like this is perfect trajectory.

12:43

Speaker A

Like this is great that Meta ever makes a free pair of glasses that's ad supported.

12:49

Speaker B

I don't know. I think that an ads business would actually be much more attractive. When you, when you say, oh, they're making a billion dollars in revenue, that's not 100% margin. I think about, well, what is Threads revenue going to be? And that's going to be much higher margin. Like Threads is probably more exciting to the core business and to the financial outcomes.

12:56

Speaker A

Yeah, I just think, I think if you.

13:16

Speaker B

I understand it's exciting. I like hardware. Like it's cool. It's just like it's hard to underwrite to like some. Oh, it's moving the needle on cash flow. I was going to pay for another data center.

13:18

Speaker A

I would expect to see just like we saw the ad supported Kindle. I think we'll see the ad supported Meta glasses are the ads on the

13:26

Speaker B

inside where on the outside for the, for the user.

13:33

Speaker A

So you're walking on a street and you walk past a restaurant, it pops up like, you know, get, get a free matcha.

13:37

Speaker B

I don't like that. I like the other way. I want to be wearing the glasses and I want it to be barking ads at everyone around me while noise cancel those ads to me so I don't get, I don't have to hear

13:43

Speaker A

that you become a loud billboard.

13:53

Speaker B

Exactly. I pay for the no ads version. But you didn't pay and you're sitting next to me.

13:55

Speaker A

You dress up as a guy on the street and you're pretending to do like what do you do for a living? Interviews. But then right when you get up, instead of saying what do you do for a living? You just activate the ads and you just try to bark like four or five hours.

14:00

Speaker B

What is your intelligent cloud provider? Is it Railway? Which one is it? Let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more. Well, Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security. That would be a great ad to bark out of your glasses. The idea of a face worn computer has garnered skepticism, even hostility. Which is understandable when most of us are trying to reduce our time in front of screens. It seems absurd to mount them right in front of our eyeballs. Why should we be okay with everyone we meet pointing Internet connected cameras at us? It feels like an assault on what little privacy we have left. This is why you carry a flashbang around. Then there's the built in AI artificial intelligence. Let these glasses identify objects in our field of view. That is not a very compelling use case for me.

14:11

Speaker A

Hot dog, not hot dog.

15:00

Speaker B

It's just like, I'm looking at a building. What is this building? It's a building. What is this tree? What do you see? It's a tree. I don't know. Do you care if it's a ficus tree or not? It's pretty rare. South African meerkat. How often are you running into an unidentified meerkat? This is not that big of a problem. The bigger one is that you're just able to talk to an AI agent and have it look up things for you. Have it do whatever you want on your phone, in your world, in your agent. But it's very rare that you're seeing things in the real world. Oh my God. What can is this? What is this? I need to know. It's like, come on. I know what a Diet Coke is. And yet there will be smart glasses. And you and I might even choose to wear them. They're technological inevitability, a new consumer tech. Arms race for the last and best real estate on our bodies. I envision that someday all glasses could be smart glasses. Said a man who should know. Zayd, who heads the division of Qualcomm, responsible for making the chips that go into the Meta Snap and Samsung smart glasses. Well, Meta is working on a bunch of other stuff. They're working on artificial intelligence. You may have heard, Zephyr says they seem to be pretty focused on coding right now. I'm pretty sure this is the Largest coding, training, data generation effort in the world. They have the computer. 30 to 50% of engineers and core teams have been forcefully reassigned to data labeling. Meta's radical plan to become a leader in AI will require vast amounts of capital and her door was open to discuss innovative financing structures and partnerships. They might wind up raising billions more to fund the build out of MSL and Meta's AI efforts. One engineer told this reporter that the whole situation feels like the movie the Hunger Games when tributes are randomly selected and then removed from their environment to something completely different. Except at Meta, many more folks are being affected with between three to five from a 10 person team going from building products used by hundreds of millions to giving human feedback on AI generated GitHub repos over and over. So a wider impact than in the Hunger Games with less drastic consequences. Yeah, still air conditioned with free snacks, which they are improving apparently.

15:02

Speaker A

So Zuck is we're going to have Meta code.

17:12

Speaker B

Yeah, it seems like they're trying to have a model that they would sell on the API or something.

17:15

Speaker A

I was expecting Meta to spend enough money to get the meta AI, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude competitor to the top of the charts and keep it there because I expected Zuck to think like, hey, if I get people asking questions all day long, I can just target them much better.

17:21

Speaker B

Oh, you mean App Store charts.

17:37

Speaker A

Yeah, so I expected them to go super hard on consumer. They don't have background in enterprise. They bought Manus, but even Manus was like sort of unclear what they were going to do over time. Maybe they would integrate it into Ads Manager, but I expected them to just say like Zach say like hey, I'm going to spend a lot of money and I have billions of users already. I'm going to do whatever it takes to get a consumer chat app to the top of the charts, keep it there and over time just focus on this one thing and the Meta AI app sitting at 17 in the app Store right now, you know, not, not, not nothing. Like the market is not, is clearly not like sending signals like hey, we're really excited for you guys to like pivot into enterprise and like yeah, spend hundreds of billions of dollars competing against Google AWS, Microsoft, Google OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX, you know, all the Chinese labs, SpaceX. Like this would be an absolutely incredible come from behind story. But I think it's reasonable that the market is saying like no, they're not pricing it in certainly.

17:39

Speaker B

Well there's other news. Zuckerberg directed Meta to build a prediction markets App, which is a wild shift. The experimental app, internally called arena, would be independent of Facebook and Instagram. It could compete for attention with polymarket and Kalshi, the biggest prediction market, says Mike Isaac.

18:47

Speaker A

I think sentiment is at near rock bottom.

19:04

Speaker B

Yeah.

19:09

Speaker A

Sentiment on Poly, on. On prediction markets is like, I don't know if it's at an all time low. I think users actually like, generally.

19:10

Speaker B

Yeah.

19:17

Speaker A

Like they way lower when it was

19:18

Speaker B

like, oh, we're going to find out who the next president is. And now it's like, it's a gambling thing for sports and it's like the vibe has very much shifted.

19:20

Speaker A

Yeah. And I think, I think a lot of people have had, like, have benefited from using prediction markets as a data source.

19:26

Speaker B

Like a lot of people have benefited from sports betting. There's a story about a guy who won $6 million on DraftKings and built a mansion with a bowling alley in it.

19:33

Speaker A

So what I was saying is like prediction markets.

19:41

Speaker B

That's what you're saying.

19:44

Speaker A

You know, you know, revenues exploding. I think that's a sign that users like the product.

19:45

Speaker B

Yeah.

19:49

Speaker A

I appreciate them as a data source. I always have.

19:49

Speaker C

Yeah.

19:51

Speaker A

But sentiment around them broadly is like bad.

19:52

Speaker B

Yeah.

19:55

Speaker A

And then sentiment around Metta.

19:56

Speaker B

Yeah.

19:58

Speaker A

Is at almost an all time low. At least in the capital markets. People are very, very unhappy. And so maybe Zuck is just saying like, eff it. I don't think it can get any worse.

19:58

Speaker B

But feedback to the Kylie Jenner Meta glasses has been way, way better.

20:11

Speaker C

Wow.

20:16

Speaker B

Silicon Valley finally figured out who controls consumer spending. This is not. Finally. Meta's been partnering with great celebrities for a really long time. This does not come as a shock to me, but it is the right person to partner with.

20:16

Speaker A

And it's so. It's fascinating because we were trying to estimate like how much Meta spent on this like partnership campaign.

20:31

Speaker B

Yeah.

20:39

Speaker A

I had, I was putting it at like somewhere around like 50 of. No information on it.

20:40

Speaker B

Million.

20:44

Speaker A

Like 50 million. Yeah. How much does it cost to get the top influencer.

20:45

Speaker B

Yeah.

20:49

Speaker A

In the entire world to do a campaign like this.

20:50

Speaker B

Yeah.

20:52

Speaker A

And launch a product with you.

20:53

Speaker B

Yeah.

20:54

Speaker A

You know, maybe something like $50 million. Then Alex Heath Ethanator, who we were

20:55

Speaker B

with this week, Scoop Athlete.

21:01

Speaker A

Scoop Athlete comes out and scoops that Snap is working on a deal with Robert Downey Jr. To spend $100 million potentially for a partnership there, which is deeply confusing for like, you know, a lot of reasons. Like the Kylie Meta campaign makes a lot of sense. Kylie is like one of the, like, probably the. Or one of the Top influencers on. On Instagram. Right. So it's a deep existing partnership.

21:02

Speaker B

You don't know that. This couldn't be. This isn't deep. It could be a super deep integration. We could be looking at like Iron Man 4 snap spectacles and the whole movie could revolve around Iron man taking off the suit and only using the snap spectacles to stop thanos for the fifth time in a row.

21:31

Speaker A

Previewing today GPT 5.6 Soul. 6th generation model named after Soul Bro.

21:47

Speaker B

That's crazy.

21:53

Speaker A

Yeah, I don't know about that one

21:54

Speaker B

because I would assume Seoul is the biggest, then Terra is the medium and then Luna's the smallest in terms of the model size.

21:56

Speaker A

Of course. By US government directive, access is limited to only 20 pre approved companies.

22:04

Speaker B

20?

22:11

Speaker A

That's so small. Which is brutal because our very own Dan Shipper will not be able to do a vibe check on it. At least he's got to get access soon.

22:11

Speaker B

But a lot of this comes on the back of the distill gate that's happening Anthropics as Alibaba has distilled Claude many, many times. And I saw a chart of the amount of tokens that are getting resold off the back of that API and it is staggering. It's a true. Somebody was like they professionalized fraud, which seems accurate and so having really tight control, it makes sense in the distilling world. It's still very unfortunate to go back

22:20

Speaker A

to your other question. So Sol is the frontier model. Terra is a balanced model for efficient everyday work. And then Luna is a fast and affordable model for high volume work. Okay, so cool.

22:48

Speaker B

There's more data center backlash. Data centers, how do they work? Theo Vaughn says nobody wants a data center, dude. And the people that want them, to me they seem kind of evil. Nobody wants this one of these companies going to own all this information. He had some very funny takes about emotional credit score. Emotional credit score would be weird. Yes. The data center issue needs to be messaged much more clearly.

23:00

Speaker A

And, and I think there's such a

23:23

Speaker B

wide gap between water and the power.

23:26

Speaker A

I'm assuming, I'm assuming he starts this way, but then he says I'm going to be switching to distributing my podcasts on. That's such a cd.

23:28

Speaker B

That's such a bad counter take because truly like the data centers that are required to power the YouTube and podcast stream, it's like so, so small compared to what AI is doing in terms of data center construction and, and the power requirements and the build out requirements. I mean like you fire off one agent and you're using like it's equivalent to YouTube for like 10 years probably. Anyway, we should move on to other stuff. OpenAI limits access to new models Citing government security concerns Company says White House review of AI releases shouldn't become long term default ban on Mythos model remains OpenAI said it's limiting access to its newest artificial intelligence models after discussions with the Trump administration, but warned that the recent trend of the White House restricting industry activity on national security grounds on a case by case basis shouldn't become the norm. The maker of ChatGPT. Yeah, I saw a lot of like safety people being like this is the worst of both worlds. It's not some sort of like broad reaching apply. You know, just like the rule exists and then everyone can easily comply. It's like the highest touch government intervention and it makes the government have much more power over AI, which is something the safety folks, I think at least the ones that I saw talking about this were not a fan of.

23:35

Speaker A

But yeah, it's also just like there's the new. It's GLM 5.2.

24:53

Speaker B

Yes.

24:58

Speaker A

That a lot of people saying like hey, I could use this as a daily.

24:58

Speaker B

And all the lab leaders have said open source is like six months behind. And so now we're like approaching six months past like the last jump in paradigm and like massive cyber capabilities. So those cyber capabilities are coming to fruition in the open source world. There's an interesting dynamic between the risk of like bio stuff and cyber stuff. So if you have a model that can hack a system, it can usually patch that system for that hack in far less than six months, like probably in like an hour. It can see, oh, there's an exploit here and we ship the code, merged it in and now that exploit is closed. And so the gap between like you create the Hack Machine 9000, it can hack everything, but instead you use it for legal reasons, for economic reasons, to patch all the systems. That's great. The problem that I'm worried about now is if there is a world where building the counter, building the counter, like the good version of something takes longer than six months. So the example I'll give is in bio. So let's say that you have a next generation model. It's really good at finding viruses that if created would wipe out a ton of people. It's also really good at building early warning detection systems and you know, counteractive, like take this pill and you'll no longer, you know, be susceptible to that deadly virus that is now possible that's fine as long as you continue to roll out the biosecurity initiatives first. You should be good because by the time the open source hacker nefarious actors, state actors get access to the Bioweapon 9000, you've already patched your society so that you have biorisk, security, early detection, all the different medicines that you need to fight back. But if manufacturing all of that and actually deploying the biosecurity, the biorisk, the good version, takes a year, but the frontier is only six months behind, you could wind up in a situation where manufacturing the virus is much shorter than manufacturing the antivirus. Well, let's go Back to the OpenAI news. OpenAI followed a similar process with versions of GPT 5.5 like Cyber, which demonstrated an ability to discover vulnerabilities in software that could be used in cyber attacks. The similar capabilities of Anthropic's Mythos models prompted the White House to increase its oversight of the industry and overhaul its light touch approach to AI. There was of course, that news that the NSA commented that Mythos was able to hack into a bunch of their systems. That was during a red teaming exercise. The unprecedented intervention led Anthropic to halt all access to comply with a new rule. Anthropic had previously worked with the administration on a limited rollout of an earlier version of mythos. And OpenAI said it hoped to make 5.6 generally available in the coming weeks and that the government's current approval process represents a transition period while President Trump's recent executive order on model oversight is implemented. Quote, we don't believe this kind of government access process should become the long term default. It keeps the best tools from users, developers, enterprises, cyber defenders and global partners who need them. We are taking this short term step because we believe it is the strong, strongest path to broader availability. Especially as the open source frontier advances, it feels less and less reasonable to keep closed source models locked away.

25:01

Speaker A

Well, why is the open source model frontier advancing is because the models are widely available. If you make these models available through everyday consumer subscriptions, there will be groups that will create networks of thousands of accounts and distill the models and then you're giving away this like advanced capability. Whether or not that causes like, you know, these sort of like doomsday scenarios, you know, not, not entirely clear. You think Meta's stock would pop if Zuck could go get a preliminary ban on some of their new models?

28:30

Speaker B

The Aura farm of the ban, it does seem to be working. It's too powerful there's other OpenAI news. I mean, the chip Jalapeno launched, designed with Broadcom, Jalapeno is purpose built for LLM workloads, powering ChatGPT, Codex API, future Agentic products. Very exciting.

29:03

Speaker A

Crazy, crazy, crazy timeline here.

29:22

Speaker C

What?

29:25

Speaker A

Just how quickly they were able.

29:25

Speaker C

Oh, yeah, yeah.

29:27

Speaker B

A lot of people are saying, like, this is the first chip designed with AI agents in the loop so you can write the instruction set much quicker. Sort of unclear. Exactly.

29:27

Speaker A

Got to give a lot of credit to the humans on both sides involved.

29:36

Speaker B

But it is just cool because for a long time it was like, oh, it'll take five years to launch a chip. And now companies are clearly doing it faster. And so the go to market cycle is tightening. Also, apparently OpenAI made deals to purchase 40% of the global raw undiced dram wafer output until 2029. Millions of raw dram wafers that cannot be used until they're processed. Smart move going deeper and deeper into the supply chain. Always, always interesting moves from the deals guy at the top.

29:39

Speaker A

Speaking of timelines.

30:08

Speaker B

Yes.

30:10

Speaker A

People are comparing GTA 6 with the Burj Khalifa. Burj Khalifa was built for one and a half billion dollars and took six years. Apparently GTA 6 is $2 billion and it's taking 12 years. But at the same time, people really have said, like, it is the Burj Khalifa of video games.

30:10

Speaker B

Kind of two. Burj Khalifa's opening Rock stripe and Bill gates are putting $500 million into funding a new organization called Intercept. Intercept's goal is to prevent the common cold and the flu and eventually eliminate all respiratory viruses completely. Incredibly cool project. Yeah, just like an incredibly cool, like, tangible thing. I saw a stat that, I saw this chart of what percentage of weeks are parents sick with something viral, generally as a function of how many kids they have. And it's like a fast takeoff curve. So it's like one kid and you're sick, like 25% of the year you have like some virus in your system, a cold, flu, something. And then as you get to like, the 2, 3, 4 kids, it ramps to like 50% of the year you are sick. And people will feel that if they're like, yes, I'm getting less sick. It's working.

30:32

Speaker A

Yeah. When the podcast, you know, optimizers that struggle to have, you know, two drinks and continue podcasting, like, they are so woefully unprepared for having children. Fortunately, most podcasters, they don't tend to go down that path of, of having families, but

31:24

Speaker B

it's a monastic, but if

31:48

Speaker A

they did, we could potentially see the strategic podcast reserve decline meaningfully.

31:49

Speaker B

Anyway, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter tbpn.com and we will see you.

31:56

Speaker A

Have a wonderful weekend.

32:02

Speaker B

Goodbye.

32:05