Why quantum has been "10 years away" for 30 years | E2316
45 min
•Jul 24, 2026about 1 month agoSummary
Host Jason Calacanis interviews Kazu Nakashogi, founder of Yakumo, a Kyoto-based quantum computing hardware startup using neutral atom technology. The conversation covers why quantum computing has remained '10 years away' for decades, the current state of qubit development, error correction challenges, and the realistic timeline to commercialization around 2030. Topics also include Japan's deep tech startup ecosystem, university IP spin-outs, international fundraising, and the looming threat quantum poses to RSA cryptography.
Insights
- The number of qubits needed to solve practical problems has dropped from ~1 million to ~10,000 due to software and algorithm improvements, while physical qubit counts are rapidly approaching that threshold — making 2030 a credible commercialization target.
- Neutral atom qubits may be 100–1,000x cheaper per qubit than superconducting alternatives (used by Google and IBM), giving startups like Yakumo a significant cost and scalability advantage.
- Quantum computers are not general-purpose replacements for CPUs/GPUs — they are specialized accelerators best suited for combinatorics, cryptography, quantum chemistry, and potentially AI training/inference.
- The 'harvest now, decrypt later' threat is real: adversarial nations are already collecting RSA-encrypted data today, intending to decrypt it once quantum computers reach sufficient scale.
- Japan's deep tech startup ecosystem around university IP spin-outs is still maturing, with no standardized methodology for IP transfer — making early-stage fundraising and commercialization more complex than in the US.
Trends
Neutral atom quantum computing emerging as a cost-competitive alternative to superconducting qubit architecturesQuantum error correction (QEC) advances accelerating the path to fault-tolerant quantum computers (FTQC) by 2030Hybrid classical-quantum computing architectures becoming the near-term deployment model, analogous to hybrid vehiclesQuantum-as-a-Service (QaaS) and quantum data services emerging as post-2035 business models for quantum hardware companiesAI being used to improve quantum error correction, while quantum computing is expected to eventually enhance AI model training and inferenceGeopolitical competition in quantum computing intensifying among the US, China, EU, and Japan — with limited research transparencyUniversity deep tech spin-outs gaining momentum in Japan, though lacking standardized IP commercialization frameworksPost-quantum cryptography urgency growing as researchers estimate RSA vulnerability within 5–10 yearsInternational quantum supply chains forming around specialized components like high-fidelity lasers, with key players in Japan and DenmarkQuantum chemistry identified as a major near-term application vertical beyond cryptography
Topics
Neutral atom quantum computing hardwareQuantum error correction (QEC) and fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC)Qubit scalability and the path to 10,000+ physical qubitsRSA cryptography vulnerability and harvest-now-decrypt-later attacksHybrid quantum-classical computing architecturesUniversity IP spin-out processes in Japan vs. the USDeep tech startup fundraising and runway managementQuantum computing business models and commercialization timelinesAI for quantum error correction and quantum for AI inferenceGeopolitical competition in quantum computing (US, China, EU, Japan)Quantum computing energy efficiency vs. classical computersQuantum chemistry as an emerging application verticalJapan's deep tech startup ecosystem and talent acquisitionQuantum supply chain development (lasers, vacuum chambers)Post-quantum cryptography and AES key length strategies
Companies
Yakumo
Kyoto-based neutral atom quantum computing hardware startup, founded 15 months ago with ~70 employees.
Google
Mentioned as a major player using superconducting qubits for quantum computing development.
IBM
Cited as a superconducting qubit quantum computing leader; quantum access priced at ~$3,000/hour.
Microsoft
Mentioned as one of the large companies publicly active in quantum computing development.
Toyota
Used as an analogy for Yakumo's full-stack integration model; also has a quantum computer installed in Japan.
Hamamatsu Photonics
Japanese photonics company supplying high-fidelity lasers critical to Yakumo's neutral atom quantum computer.
InnoKT Photonics
Copenhagen-based subsidiary of Hamamatsu Photonics creating high-power lasers for neutral atom quantum computing.
Kyoto University
University from which Yakumo was spun out; provides research foundation and investor network connections.
Alai Ventures
US venture capital firm that made its first investment in Japan by participating in Yakumo's seed extension round.
Corn Nation
French VC firm specializing in quantum computing hardware; made its first Japan investment in Yakumo.
Kyoto ICAP
Kyoto University's corporate venture arm that invested in Yakumo and connected them to US investors.
IMS (Institute for Molecular Science)
Japanese research institute co-founding Yakumo alongside Kyoto University through two leading professors.
Toshiba
Mentioned for its SQBM quantum product, cited as costing ~$90/hour for access.
Meta
Referenced as an analogy for potential quantum data-as-a-service business models.
Scale AI
Referenced as an analogy for a future quantum data and entropy-as-a-service business model.
MIT
Researchers from MIT published papers on how quantum computing could enhance AI in the future.
OpenAI
Mentioned as an analogy — talking to Yakumo's founder is like talking to OpenAI or DeepMind 10 years ago.
DeepMind
Mentioned alongside OpenAI as an analogy for the early-stage potential of Yakumo's quantum work.
People
Kazu Nakashogi
Guest founder of Kyoto-based neutral atom quantum computing startup Yakumo, discussing hardware, fundraising, and com...
Jason Calacanis
Host interviewing Kazu Nakashogi about quantum computing hardware and the startup ecosystem in Japan.
Yoshiro Takashi
Kyoto University professor with 30+ years studying neutral atoms (Ytterbium); advisor and co-founder of Yakumo.
Kenji Omori
Head of IMS and co-founding scientific advisor of Yakumo alongside Kyoto University's Professor Takashi.
Karthik
Audience member who asked about quantum cost reduction and post-quantum cryptography strategies.
Quotes
"The number we need for doing actual calculation is decreasing. A number of the physical qubit is close to that number. So we believe that we reach to like two of them meet each other close to 2030."
Kazu Nakashogi
"Once we use quantum computers, maybe people believe that we can do more nice, very fast calculation compared to CPU or GPU. But this is not correct. We can apply quantum computer for particular questions or problems."
Kazu Nakashogi
"Some country already collected top secret which is already protected by RSA cryptography. But they already have that. So they have the data, they just haven't cracked it. And once they create quantum computer — take now encrypted data, solve later."
Kazu Nakashogi
"I believe quantum computer could be the very, very great accelerator to make classical computer even smarter. So there would be a hybrid computer with both — like a hybrid Toyota Prius."
Kazu Nakashogi
"This conversation is literally like talking to OpenAI or DeepMind 10 years ago."
Jason Calacanis
Full Transcript
3 Speakers