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I want to talk about how the Packers are going to handle free agency and how they marry that with the urgency of trying to move forward here as a Super Bowl contender, which by the way, they absolutely are because they have the young quarterback to build around in the NFC. and the only reason I am bringing this up and this will be music to Bears fans ears the only reason I am bringing this up is because since mid-January all I have had to hear is how spectacular Caleb Williams is Caleb Williams one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this season not just by completion percentage but if you look at the charted throws the on target rate the catchable ball rate, all that stuff. Oh yes, he doesn't turn the ball over that much except his turnover-worthy play rate is not all that great. In fact, it's about average among qualified starters. And everyone gets seduced by the big-time plays. Here's the thing. Jordan Love last year had a higher big-time throw rate than Caleb Williams. And the more I thought about it, the more I realized that this was the Peter Griffin timeshare conversation. Jordan Love is a boat, but Caleb Williams could be anything. He could even be a boat. He could even be as good as Jordan Love is right now. Maybe, maybe not. But you look around the NFC as the Packers are in this Super Bowl window right now. Matthew Stafford, 38. What are you going to get out of him the next five years? Jordan Levy is now entering his prime. Quarterbacks in the NFL over history, that 28 to 32 window is basically the quarterback's prime. He is just entering his prime. And last year, he was the second best quarterback in the NFL on a per dropback basis in terms of efficiency. EPA for drop back, all that stuff. And he was first or second all year. It was him and Drake May. Drake May was the runner up for MVP. That's what we're talking about here. That's the player we're talking about here. The inefficiencies of someone like Jalen Hurts are obvious. The deficiencies in his game, the inability to push the ball, middle of the field, outside the numbers, drive the ball. He can throw deep. That's about it. Yes, he's had some big moments in big games. There's no doubt about it. And he's played his best in the biggest games. He's had his best games in the playoffs, in the Super Bowl, but he's been backpacked by that Philadelphia Eagles team. And when the offensive coordinator was not good enough to get a head coaching job, he struggled. And the offense struggled. And the offense struggled because of his deficiencies. The same is true of Jared Goff. We know what Jared Goff is. He is a very good quarterback. He is also a system quarterback. His best years with Ben Johnson, his best years other than his years with Ben Johnson, with Sean McVay. Last year, without any of those guys, not the same guy, not a bad quarterback, but not the, you know, world-destroying offense that it had been with Ben Johnson there and with the offensive line that he had in place and with the health that he had gotten over that three-season run. just not the same. We know what Sam Darnold is. Sam Darnold is a journeyman quarterback who has hit his stride. He's playing good football. He is a quarterback who's good enough to win you a Super Bowl. But if he were just lined up at recess with all the quarterbacks in the NFC, no one's picking that guy first, second, third, fourth. They're just not. You want to say Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott's really good. I really like Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott has come up short in big games over and over and over and over and over. You look at this last year, Jordan Love. This is the, oh, Jordan Love's not clutch. Jordan Love's not clutch. Think of the games the Packers lost this year. He tied the game against Carolina in the fourth quarter. The Panthers go down and get the game-winning field goal as time expired against the Packers defense with Micah Parsons. He leads them down the field against Cleveland to get the game-winning field goal. The field goal gets blocked. Like, those games are not on Jordan Love. The Eagles game, I put squarely on the shoulders of Matt LaFleur, and 25 points in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears, that's not on Jordan Love. In fact, I went back and looked. Fourth quarter and overtime. This last season, 2025, including playoffs, Jordan Love, number one with a bullet. An EPA per play in the fourth quarter in overtime in games that were still being decided. So win percentage between 20% and 80%. So forget the blowouts, like teams running up the score when they're up 15 or whatever. Not that. The best quarterback in the NFL in fourth quarters this last year. What else? What else? What else? The only other guy to be top 10 in big time throw rate and turnover worthy play rate and top 10 on the good side of turnover worthy play rate. Jordan Love was second in big time throw rate. Only Matthew Stafford made big time throws at a higher rate last year than Jordan Love And he was fifth in turnover worthy play rate Tied with Justin Herbert and Aaron Rodgers The only other guy one other guy was in the top 10 in both categories. So someone who can generate big plays while avoiding negative plays. Josh Allen. For my money, the best quarterback in the world right now. That's the only other guy that generates big-time throws, that creates with his arm, as often as Jordan Love, while also avoids negative plays as often as Jordan Love. That's the kind of player we're talking about. Who else can do that? And then who else over the last three seasons has gone to the playoffs every year? Okay, the Chiefs won a Super Bowl. They also missed the playoffs once. The Bengals missed the playoffs twice. Ravens missed the playoffs. Lamar Jackson's a two-time MVP. We're not even in the NFC anymore. Think about that. Like Bears fans, Lions fans, they love to point out, oh, the Packers have the longest NFC North drought in the division. Okay. They also have the longest playoff streak in the division. Do you? No. No. I understand the seven seed. Matt LaFleur, seven seed merchant. I understand that part of the criticism, but they're in. They're in. And by the way, two years ago, 2024, they won 11 games. And in 2023, they won more games than the NFC South winner. So you just look at the numbers. Over the last three years, we're talking about one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. In fact, over the last three years, only Josh Allen has a better EPA per play than Jordan Love. you want to build around a young quarterback. And he's only getting better. This was just his best season. This was just his best season. He was banged up in 2024, still improved on his efficiency numbers from 2023. Didn't have the raw numbers because he missed some games, but the efficiency numbers were better. They were even better this season. And he has got, as we talked about on our Friday News Dump, another level he can go to because one of the stickiest metrics is how does a quarterback perform from a clean pocket? Jordan Love was the best quarterback from a clean pocket last year. Also, the number one quarterback when blitzed. And for a while, the number one quarterback against man coverage. So what are you supposed to do? I guess the answer is score 25 fourth quarter points against him and hope that his receivers drop a couple passes on the final drive and you can win. Congratulations, but that's not on Jordan Love. Now, I want to talk about this offseason with the Packers in a Super Bowl window and how that affects the way that they might go about trying to put this team together. We'll talk about that next. 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Head to locked on packers.supercast or hit the link in show notes for more. The Packers are in a win-now moment. And so given that they are in a win-now moment, that has to affect the way that they approach where they feel like they can improve this team in the draft versus where they feel they can improve this team in the free agent market. Cornerback is the big one, right? That's where people are going. They need to add talent. Here's the problem. Rookie corners suck. Almost always. even if they end up being good players. Most rookies are bad. That is, nowhere is that true. Corners and quarterbacks, almost always bad. And I would say even more true at corner, we've seen some quarterbacks lately come in right away as rookies and play well. Also, investigating historical hit rates. In the second round, which is where the Packers are going to pick, you have an underwater odds of hitting on a starting caliber corner. You're below the 50 percentile in terms of looking for the percentile of coverage grade. The chance of getting a starter in the second round for a corner, not just in year one, but period, is below 40%. you need to be able to draft a corner in the first round. So that's a problem. You cannot count on improving your secondary solely in the draft. Now, pass rushers along the interior. You can get a pass rusher on day two along the interior. and in the first round, you have a very good chance of getting a good player. In the second round, your chances of getting a 65 percentile starter are better than 50-50, but that's overall in the second round. Now, that does not fall off until after the second round is over in terms of your chances of hitting. So below 50%, you have to get into the third round. So the Packers can credibly believe that they can get an interior rusher with that pick. Now, offensive line, we've talked about, I think they need some help there. The problem with needing a tackle, and I don't know that the Packers need a tackle, is you have to get those guys in the first round, generally speaking. like you your odds of finding a starter on the second, third, fourth round it falls off a cliff now that's not true at guard in fact the NFL is really bad if what the Packers think they need is interior offensive linemen or a center teams are really bad projecting interior offensive linemen in fact the success rate in drafting guards in the first, second, third, and fourth rounds is almost flat. Like you are almost just as likely in the third and fourth rounds to draft a starting caliber guard than you are in the first and second round. So that's why the advice is don't do that. It's why if you thought Jordan Morgan was a guard, you don't draft him in the first round. With some exceptions of course But by and large don think you can outwork the historical trends There just other positions that are A more valuable and B you just can feel more confident in your evaluations because the league over the years have been really good at evaluating those positions. Now, the Packers, I think you do have to consider your own track record. Like the Packers have done really well hitting on offensive linemen on day three. They've done really good hitting on receivers on day two. One of the reasons why they have not historically taken a lot of first-round receivers is they're really good at finding those second-round and third-round guys. So if you don't need to hit on first-round guys, then you look at other priority positions, tackle, pass rusher, corner, quarterback. Now, receiver is a premium position, but you understand what I'm saying. It's a similar situation in center, though you're slightly more likely to get a better player on the first and second round. still like I don't know if the Packers want to use premium draft capital on a center. They tried it with Josh Myers. It didn't work. I guess you could say they tried it on Elton Jenkins because he played center in college and it definitely did work. But they've also in the past, you go back and you look at someone like Corey Lindsley and you say, well, they were fine just throwing a day three player in there. Now it worked because he turned out to be an all pro. Not every player is going to do that. So do you want to use premium draft capital on an interior offensive lineman? Well, the Packers, again, have shown a willingness to do that. They drafted Elton Jenkins to play guard and or center. They drafted Josh Myers to play center. If they think they need a center and they're in a win now window, much like they were in 2021, would they go in that direction? I think it is a question worth asking. and that's what I want to orient this conversation around because I think we are underestimating the urgency that the Packers have an early round pick go offensive line you can never draft too many offensive linemen and as we talked about at the end of last week they are suddenly in a precarious position with this offensive line now I think it's being overstated because the offense was really good last year with all of that flux along the offensive line with Rasheed Walker playing below his standard with Zach Tom in and out of the lineup with Anthony Belton's struggles. By the way, it was Sean Ryan's struggles before that and it was Jordan Morgan's struggles before that. And then Aaron Banks in and out of the lineup. Elton Jenkins gets hurt. They got to move Sean Ryan. That's a whole group of changes and theoretical downgrades. and now you go in, okay, Anthony Belton solidified it right guard, probably going to get Jordan Morgan at left tackle. We still don't know who the center is going to be. I don't think they're going to pay the going rate for Sean Ryan because I think someone like Sean Ryan is going to get paid on the open market to be someone's starting guard, and that means he's going to get $8, $10-plus million per year. The Packers, I don't think it's worth it for them to do that. I think they can look at this draft class and say, there are some interior offensive linemen here. See what you can do. I think there is a good chance that one of their second or third round picks, the more I think about it, is an offensive lineman and that they go out in the free agent market and they sign a Greg Newsome II. They sign a Calais Campbell. They sign a Demario Davis. Probably not all those guys, but they sign a group of players because Brian Gutekinds does not like to go into the draft with needs. He likes to satisfy those needs and then go into the draft. When they have a pressing need like that, generally speaking, they're going to do something in free agency when they can to address it. And there are plenty of options to me in free agency, especially when you know you don't have a first-round pick. So now on day two, who are the guys that you can get on day two that can really impact this team. I do think you can find an impact defensive lineman, but if it's a defensive tackle, they've got to be a pass rusher. They can't just be a run stuffer. They have to be someone who can affect the passing game. And if you can't find one of those guys, it's fine to wait. It's fine to wait. So could they get, you know, if they think they have someone with a high second, late first round grade that falls to them at a different position, at a cornerback position, for example, could they do that? Some running back they love. And understanding Josh Jacobs is going to be gone in the year. Could they go that direction? Speaking of building around your young quarterback, how about just adding another weapon in there? I don't think that's crazy. Brian Goodikens has done that. 2020 was that. A.J. Dillon. And Aaron Jones was still in his prime. And I'm not talking about the meme from Duck Dynasty where it's the old guy going, I'm in my prime. Not that. He was still really good. And still had a couple more really good years. AJ Dillon was drafted to be really the heir apparent for Jamal Williams, understanding they were only going to pay Aaron Jones, and then they needed the other guy. He was a second-round pick on a guy they knew was going to be RB2 in this offense. So don't count out running back either as you look at this draft. Now, it's not nearly as good a running back draft as it was last year. they know more about Marshawn Lloyd's injury and what that looks like than we do. But I'm here having this discussion because I want to upend the apple cart a little bit when I see these mock draft Mondays and everyone's just got DT and cornerback penciled in on day two. And I'm going, I don't know, man. I don't know. I would be surprised if we went into the draft going, they need to get those two spots. I think Brian Gutekind knows that they need some beef there. I frankly don't know that they need another pass rusher on the interior. With Devontae Wyatt and Carl Brooks, and then the ability to play Lucas Van Ness inside. Micah Parsons rushes inside a lot. Could they straight up draft an edge? If they're going to move on from Rashawn Gary, I kind of think you have to. So part of this is my own reorienting around what do these mock draft Mondays look like? I got to think about this in a different way. And we do that next on Locked on Packers. Ever wanted to experience the NBA Finals live and in person? 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And this is a good time to be doing this because we're getting the numbers. And this week, the numbers are really, really important at a couple positions We gonna talk more about that as we move through the week Corner is one of them Athleticism is huge at the running back position For pass rushers it is paramount Offensive linemen, it is essential, especially a tackle interior, maybe a little less so. We talked last week about how defensive tackle, the Packers don't really need to do that. They don't really need that when they're looking at these players. So I'm looking at this draft board right now. LT Overton is the highest player on the board. 6'5", 278, technically an edge, but could probably play all over the Packers front. I mean, depending on how he tests, I don't think that's crazy. But there's a name here that is kind of jumping out to me. Chase Bizantes from Texas A&M. He's young. He's still only 21. He's 6'5", 315, so right in the range where you're going, okay, this is someone who could really be appealing. He started his career as a tackle and then moved to left guard. Is this someone they could move inside and have them play center? That sort of interior flexibility. Now, there's also Blake Miller who played right tackle, played some left tackle. 6'6", 3'15", also only 21 years old, projects as a tackle in the NFL. do they want to draft someone who played tackle, but they think could be a center, worst case scenario, he's a guard or could be a tackle. That seems very Packers-y to me. That seems very Elton Jenkins-y to me. Played right tackle, played some left tackle, major college program. This is interesting to me. This is very, very interesting to me. And I think that's where I'm going to go here. just so we can sort of, you know, put this idea through. There's also some, you know, Derek Moore, the edge from Michigan, Chris Johnson, the cornerback from San Diego State, I think would be someone that they'd really like. Jadarian Price, there's some linebackers here as well. Josiah Trotter is one of them. But I just want to see how this plays out if they take an offensive lineman at 52. So then you're sitting there at 84. Emmitt Johnson is there. but Daryl Jackson Jr. is also there. 6'5", 337. I've mentioned, you know, they don't tend to like guys that big. Does that mean it's a no-go? I don't know. He seems like the kind of player in terms of body type that you really would be interested in. Now he's going to be 23. I don't know that that's, he's a very good run defender. Just an okay pass rusher. do you need to use the 84th overall pick on a player like that? That's the question that I think the Packers are going to have to answer here. Now, there's also a halfback. Emmitt Johnson is someone who was really good last year. 5'11", 200. So in that sort of Aaron Jones mold. Elusive. Not crazy elusive, but elusive. that's someone that I think could be interesting to them. There's some receivers here. I don't think the Packers would do that. Jacob Rodriguez has kind of been my favorite pick at 84 here over the course of the mock draft Mondays that we've done. But I just feel like they're all, Kieron Crawford from Auburn is also here. 6'4", 255. This would be all about how he tests. If he tests like a freak athlete and they're going to move on from Rashawn Gary. That's a big if. Where could he fit in the Packers' plans? I'm going to take Daryl Jackson Jr. and just see what I'm left with here in the fourth round. And okay, so Nicholas Singleton, the running back from Penn State. Six flat, 224, 21 years old. I like that. You got to see how he tests. um austin barber the tackle from florida you already did your you already got your offensive lineman so could you have waited and got it got someone like here again i've said this before davison igbenosin is here there's no way that igbenosin lasts this long so i just think it's it's disingenuous to pick him here um levy on moss the running back from texas a&m 5'11 2'10", does not have a ton of productivity last year because he was hurt. That's been the issue over the course of his career. So is that a risk you want to take in the fourth round? Could you get him somewhere else? Could you find a different running back? Katron Allen is someone that I've taken in this spot before. I had a conversation the other day about some of these quarterbacks. hear me out like would it be crazy in the fourth round to take Drew Aller or Cade Klubnik both of whom are on the board here and say this is your developmental guy like those guys are big time talents they were big time college football players it would be sort of the upgraded Sean Clifford would they do something like that I don't think that's crazy at all I don't think it's crazy at all for the Packers to consider something like that. Now there's also a center here, Yager Burton, 6'4", 323, played a lot of football at Kentucky, played center, played left guard, played right guard. Did they just double up here? Like you got your tackle. In this case, they signed a Greg Newsome Jr. or a Trayvon Diggs. And so you're not feeling like you have to draft a corner in this spot. Other than Igbenosin, there's not someone that I really love in this spot in terms of corners just for the sake of doing something different. Like, what about it? What about it? Just really solidify this offensive line. I'm going to do it. So we come out of this draft, if we're the Packers, absolute meat and potatoes draft. You get a tackle who maybe can play center, maybe can play guard, a defensive tackle, and then a true center. And now you've improved multiple spots of depth. Look, it would not win any awards. I don't think it would win me the record for downloads in terms of a draft. But I think it would help the Packers. I really do. I really do. I got to dive deeper into these players, into these prospects. We're going to continue to do that in the coming weeks. The Combine is here to give you a lot of information about these players and it matters to the Packers even if it doesn't matter to you. So we're going to parse what matters, what doesn't, all that good stuff as we move through this week and next week. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you get podcasts. Okay? 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