Conference Championship Sunday Preview: Rams-Seahawks III meets the rise of the Broncos and Patriots

At New Balance We believe if you run, you're a runner. However you choose to do it. Because when you're not worried about doing things the right way, you're free to discover your way. And that's what running's all about. Run your way at newbalance.com slash running. Season 3 of the Talent Transformation Podcast is here. Join Avacher's CEO, Dimitri Boylin, as he talks with HR leaders who are leveraging disruption to stay ahead. Here from the brilliant minds behind the talent strategies at IBM, Siemens Energy, Transcom, and many more. Subscribe now so you never miss an episode. The Talent Transformation Podcast, redefining talent, one conversation at a time. Jack and Jill went up the hill in their new convertible roadster. The handling was good and under the hood was a hybrid electric motor. Their new set of wheels came with a great deal thanks to their experience score. They got a better rate because their score was in shape. Now their walking days are no more. Better your experience credit score to help unlock better rates on car finite. Experience better your score better your story. Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. Championship Sunday has arrived. AFC Championship, NFC Championship, two excellent matchups. Started with the AFC Championship. Just dug into the path that the Broncos and the Patriots have taken back to this place. I was at the 2015 AFC Championship game when the Broncos won. That was actually the last time the Super Bowl was in San Francisco. And so a lot of weird parallels there. It took the Broncos a while to get back to this place, but they're firmly back in this spot. Patriots, what, what a terrible three years it was that they had to wait before being a good team again. I feel so sorry for their fans. The dug into what we're looking for on both sides of the ball. Obviously started with what the Broncos offense might look like with Jared Stidham. They will ask of him in a game like this before digging into how the Broncos defense might approach Drake May. Then moved to the NFC Championship game as good as it gets. That just just truly is good as it gets. We talked about some of the historical markers associated with the quality of these teams. Debated whether this is the best three game series we've ever seen from a set of two teams in the NFL. I'm sure there are some good examples you guys could throw our way. After that dug into what it looks like on both sides of the ball. Ramsey Hawks again doesn't get any better than that. And can Sam Darnold overcome the Chris Shula demons that have haunted him here over the last year or so? Loved these conversations with me Dave Helman and Derek Klasen. Let's get to it right now. Championship Sunday is here to fantastic games for us to dig into today. Both of these games presented by Bette MGM. Let's start with the AFC Championship game Patriots at Broncos. Patriots are four and a half point favorites on the road. This is mostly a product of Bonaix not playing in this game. Originally open with the Broncos as slight favorites. It's shifted over five points. I believe after the injury or after the news of the bone in next injury came down. Dave, where I wanted to start with this is that this is a familiar matchup in the postseason. I remember going to multiple playoff games between the Patriots and the Broncos in Denver. I'm pretty sure there was a lease more than there was more than one. And one of them was the 2015 AFC Championship game. That was also the last time the Super Bowl was in San Francisco. Is that both of these teams are playing in the AFC Championship game in Denver. I was there. Obviously they were at very different points in the lifespan of their franchises than they are now. It was completely different teams. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, it's kind of the end of that era of things. And then what happens next I think is what is so interesting when you're trying to like put into context both of these teams arriving back in this place. After that game ends, the Broncos like and the Broncos win the Super Bowl. And then they immediately go into the wilderness post Peyton Manning. You have one more year of Gary Kubiak and then in 2017 you draft you draft you draft Paxton Lynch in 2016. In 2017 you have Trevor Simian starts the majority of your games. We have the Vance Joseph era. They cycle between all these quarterbacks. They draft the side case Kingdom in 2018. We get to the thick Vangio era. That kind of peeders out Teddy Bridgewater placed some quarterback for them. Then you hire an eight hackett. You make the Russell Wilson trade. It's an out and out disaster. You hire Sean Peyton in order to kind of get things back on the rails. And it works. And now in that 10 year span where it felt like the Broncos may have been as a drift as any franchise in the league. They are back in the AFC championship game because the big bet that they made on the coach that was supposed to get them back here actually worked out. I have a few places I can go with this and thinking about the Broncos specifically before we go anywhere else. The Broncos feel like such a great case study for how bad it can get. And then how quickly you can turn it around. It's pretty, it's pretty remarkable where Denver is when you consider all of the stuff that has broken against them. Because remember, we're still only a couple years removed from deciding that the Russell Wilson thing was a disaster. The Broncos won 14 games and are hosting the AFC championship while there while they are still carrying Russell Wilson dead money on their cap. It's remarkable. But it also comes after however many years that was like when you were listing all that out in the pre-production meeting like the Teddy Bridge water time and thinking about Paxton Lynch and the Drew Lock year, you're just like, holy shit. There's been some rough Broncos football, but the minute you make the right hire and things start to fall into place and it's accelerated when you draft a quarterback that can make it work, it can happen really, really quickly when you start making the right decisions. There's no better example of that than the new England Patriots. Yeah, and like honestly to what I was the last thing I want to say with like how crazy the turnaround for the Broncos is, it's not just that you have all the Russ dead cap money like stuck with what you've had over the past couple of years. They had to trade to get Sean Payton. Like they had to give up assets to get him in like bleed draft capital, so it's harder to get players and then still here two years later. You're already there and you built one of the best defenses and Lee again Sean Payton is still one of the best play callers like it is pretty remarkable how quickly you can turn around. And then the Patriots are an even quicker turnaround talk about like the five or six years that the Broncos had to spend out in the wilderness. It was most like seven or eight years. The Patriots, two years, two years where they were like an out and out disaster before they're back here and you talk about just the right stuff falling into place and the Patriots deserve a ton of credit for the turnaround that's happened to go from four and 13. To 14 and three and favor by four and a half points in the AFC championship game back up quarterback or not is an absolutely remarkable turnaround. But to have that four and 13 season in the year where there was a quarterback draft where you could just sit there with a third overall pick and draft a guy that was as good of a quarterback prospect as Drake may is some of this luck is required. Like if you're a team like the jets and you've had to suffer in the way that you have and you have the season that you just did with the first year head coach the exact same way the Gerard Mayo Patriots just did and you don't have that pathway to a quarterback. You need the breaks to go your way to orchestrate something like this and the Patriots happen to be very, very bad for the first time in a year where Drake may was available with the third overall pick. That's my other big takeaway from this match up is how sick are the other like 13 teams in the AFC will throw out the chiefs obviously the chiefs aren't jealous of anybody but everybody else in the AFC like from the bills for very obvious reasons how the bills are feeling heading into this weekend. But even teams that have been less successful. I mean the Tennessee Titans have had multiple cracks at a number one number two overall quarterback the Houston Texans have never made it the conference championship weekend the New York Jets have had cracks at players like this because of their troubles teams that have drafted very, very talented quarterbacks like the Jaguars for all of them to fall short for various reasons or never even really get off the ground. And then all this is happening it's the frickin Patriots and then even the Broncos like I know it's been a minute for the Broncos but we're not that far removed from when they went to the playoffs five straight years and we're in two Super Bulls in a short span so for both of these teams to step into the power vacuum created by the chiefs and to a lesser degree the Ravens not making the playoffs. That would really piss me off if I were a fan of a rivalry of CT the Patriots especially yes the Patriots especially for sure. Let's start with when the Broncos have the ball in this game I think we have to start there just because of the Jared Stidem element to all of this you guys both went back and did some Jared Stidem studying I did as well watch the preseason snaps he had this year you guys watch the 2023 starts Derek what stood out to you about your impressions of Stidem from the kind of the small goal. And so we've gotten the kind of the small glances we've gotten of him and what that might mean for the version of the Broncos offense that we see this weekend. Yeah I think I want to start with some of the things he does well just to try to paint like the optimistic case here obviously for your Broncos fan he throws a very nice spiral and I do think as far as like the accuracy goes he's pretty accurate to all three levels of the field I think arm talent and power especially down the field can be a little bit more of a complicated thing I think especially deep between the numbers but he's a really good guy in terms of leading receivers. Giving them good opportunities for yards after the catch where is like I think nix is directionally accurate but sometimes struggles to like really lead guys and just let them run across the field. Stidem is really good at that and the other thing I think that's that is good at is he's very quick to get to his check downs which in some sense can be bad right like it limits the offense a little bit but if you're going to be the backup quarterback like let's just try to get as many singles as we can I do think he does a good job of that. So if you're the patriots between how well he leads his receivers and how quickly is getting to his check downs they better come ready to tackle like Robert Spalain those safeties the corners they better be ready to tackle in the flats like 30 times in this game. This won't be overly surprising but go watch stidem at the end of the 23 season. It looks a lot like what the Broncos do right now and the big big difference which I do think matters a lot for this game is he's just not the athlete that bonix is he can move in the pocket he can step up and escape from pressure and. To some degree extend plays like he had a couple nice I think it was against the chargers get a couple nice throws where he had to bail up and out and throw on the run and he can do that bonix full stop great athlete like he's explosive he's sudden he's fast makes him impossible to deal with and it gives the Broncos a lot of. Extra options in their offense like you're not calling design runs for Jared stidem and Jared stidem I don't think has the. Escape ability to make you write if nothing else goes right. But as far as like what the quarterback does it looks the same like you're going to see him rip some digs and some slants and there's going to be some swings and some screens I like watching those games back I was like these are all the throws that make up 80% of what bonix does in a given game the biggest difference to me because Jared said I'm a hill scramble every once in a while and he will make plays outside of structurally he clears that bar of athleticism he's not nearly a sudden of an athlete as nix is like when you watch how quickly nix can accelerate how quickly he takes off quickly he gets himself out of trouble that's not what Jared stidem is bringing to the table like bonix this year did not get sacked almost at all and there are two reasons for that one the Broncos past protection is very good which I think is worth bringing up one. You're talking about how Jared stidem is set up for success but the other part of it is bonix of the second best pressure to sacrate in the NFL this year the only quarterback who is better was Brock party like he does have that sudden athleticism that gets him out of trouble and you go back and watch the. Preseason snaps from this year Jared said I'm took like four sacks and two games some of that is playing with backup offensive lineman but again he's just not quite as able to get himself out of trouble as nix has shown consistently as he let he's able to do well even if you look at the. Well, even if you look at regular season games over the last four or five years, because stidem played obviously those two at the end of 2023 I think he had some action in 2024 as well his sac rate is like two and a half times bonix is even in the regular season action that he's gotten and so part of that is I think once he gets out of the pocket and can stride he's fine like he's athletic enough he's just not sudden kind of like we're talking like in and around the pocket he's just not as quick as is a guy like bonix and I think that also extends to his release time like the ball comes out of his hands lower than it is. But he's not just a little bit of an issue. One of the crucial things that bro next brought to the Broncos offense in like the games where they needed a big performance from the that's out of the ball is what he could do with his legs he's done it consistently made plays outside of structure against the Broncos made more than just a little bit of an issue. But I think that's one of the crucial things that bro next brought to the Broncos offense in like the games where they needed a big performance from the that's out of the ball is what he could do with his legs he's done it consistently made plays outside of structure against the Broncos made multiple places of scramble against the bills last week. The other area where okay we need 28 to 30 because we're planning us to really good offense what can bow give us he has consistently made the throws asked of him down the field in the second half of the year. So the Bronco game it even at the end of the chiefs game that was happening and then last week he had three like big throws down the field and big moments when they most needed that that is an area where can Jared sit on do like a decent bonix impression because I think the Broncos are very very good at providing those opportunities within the offense for the quarterback like those are opportunities cater to you by play design. And just the way that you're structuring things the Broncos do a great great job of moving the pocket to find those throws like the touchdown to a little Jordan Humphrey last week where it's quarters to that backside for the bills they tie down the safety with like a deep dig and then they run Jordan Humphrey back behind it the Broncos do that a lot they did against the bills last week they hit the same play against the Jags that's the type of throw where you can make that throw even if your Jared stood them like those opportunities could be available to you. And so how those four to six were scheming you up open deep shots down the field can you hit them throws go in this game. I think ultimately could define how the Broncos offense feels and I don't think you can underestimate just how good bow has been at that particularly in the second half of the season because there it wasn't always the case and we was struggling with it for most of the first half of the year. I mean, we talked we've talked at Nazim about that first Raiders game, which was just one of the grossest games of the year where I think like he went like two of 10 or something when he tried to throw the ball down field is pass rating on throws of 20 plus air yards in the first 10 weeks of the season was 72 with an EPA per dropback of 0.02 from week 11 to right now is pass rating on throws of 20 plus air yards is 122 with an EPA per dropback of 1.06. So that's so much it's unreal how good he's been at it since yeah, like the halfway point of the season and so. I don't think stitum has to be amazing at it, but it can't it can't just go by the wayside either like it's been such a huge part of who they are. And I think to me it's just like how they choose to do that and how they choose to attack you because to me like I think some of the best stuff I agree like the Broncos scheme me up some of the shot plays over like deep over the middle getting some of those posts some of those deep overouts that they've run moving the pocket a little bit have been great. I worry if Jared's that I'm as the arm talent for that like I think outside the numbers they'll be fine because. He actually did have a couple of really good touch like go balls and stuff in those like the Raiders games I think the Chargers game that he played late in the season but like to me any NFL quarterback can throw deep outside the numbers like just go balls it's really more of like if you especially if you're throwing it on rhythm like everyone has the arm talent for that some of the stuff deeper over the middle where your margin for errors a little bit tighter I do wonder if they can do that night that matters particularly league and so patriots they have the third lowest completion percentage allowed on throws beyond 20 yards it's like just under 30% that's against the defense that doesn't give you a whole lot John Payton's really going to have to dig pretty deep in his back for some of those I think it's funny you look at the numbers and it makes sense when you look at the way the Patriots play but at first it seems counterintuitive Patriots have been really good this year I'm like intermediate throws in the middle of the field and that's because though when there was guys like play quarters the safety hammer down on stuff and so that exact play I'm talking about not only is that a play the Broncos want to run where they're running that. Big over back behind it that against this Patriots team specifically that's the type of stuff that's available to you because we're the Patriots have actually been worst their bottom eight and success rate on deep and intermediate throws outside the numbers those are not often plays I went back and watch like all of them yesterday where they're challenging Gonzalez or Carlton Davis on go balls their plays were with some sort of route that you're tying down or some sort of crossing it route you're bleeding the corner out of that space and then running something back into it and so that's not the game. I think it's a good thing to see that I'm not going to be a good player to me those are where some of the opportunities are going to come and whether or not Jerry's did him can hit two three of those over the course of the game I think ends up becoming a huge deal a fun angle of this that I'm excited about is it's a chance of proof of concept for Sean Peyton really like I'm obviously as a play caller and a play designer and we know he's really good at that. I think that's the most serious signings that Sean Peyton made when he got here and I always remember stuff like that like I even now I think about Kyle use check being one of Kyle Shanahan's like go to signings when he first got to San Francisco and what that signals about a player. For Peyton to identify him as as a guy that he wanted that badly and to keep him around and I Peyton Peyton said like right after bonix got hurt just watch and like he expects to them to rip it and be ready for this moment and I'm excited to see if that's true because like there's a lot of between the infrastructure of the Broncos offense what Peyton can do for him and what Peyton believes about him there's a lot of reason to think that this could go pretty well now you just got to go actually do it on the field. Straight go balls Derek against these corners that's something I would probably shy away from but they've gotten they've gotten got a couple times this year on like double moves from guys on the move because can also like try to hammer down on some of that stuff and if so I think the Falcon specifically I can remember who was it might have been drake one and they like had a guy in motion running a rail and they got consoles with a double move down the field and so again the Broncos are pretty good at finding their handful of opportunities again. They're not just a game through structure like just the way that they'll like do some like switch vertical stuff of like finding these opportunities down the field out is be curious how they end up seeking them out in this game and even on top of like the double move stuff they'll do some of that like the fake trip screen where it like the one that Luther Burton actually or the DJ more got to beat the Packers like they'll do some of that stuff to to again try to get these DB's biting down on stuff. The Broncos this year we've talked about it a lot they led the league and design rollouts per next year 96 of them total just moving the pocket consistently the Patriots ranked 29th and success rate on those plays this year and the other area where I think the other side where what the Patriots have been doing and want to be doing lines up with where the Broncos haven't been very good this year the Broncos finish 24th and he paper drop back versus covers zero this season that was with bone X and we've seen it the Patriots have been up in double digits covers zero lies over the last month and they're so and even when they're not doing it Derek it's a lot of mugged up looks where they're bringing some funky pressures and just think about what the second half of that game looked like last week against the bills for Denver like there if they're going to bring four against them even a past rush that has guys like Milton Williams and has the juiced at the Patriots have shown I still think the Broncos offensive line is able to hold up in those situations but we've seen that when you start bringing a little bit of heat you can get after the Broncos a little bit I expect the Patriots to do that in this game. I really do too and especially it's been a lot of the mugged up stuff they're definitely using Christian Ellis and Robert Splain in a lot of that sense and doing really smart stuff with it to like they actually ran a cover zero play against the chargers where spleen like comes up and like engages the offensive lineman immediately pops out and gets a hand in the throwing lane because he knows as well as Justin Herbert balls got to come out immediately they also I look this up because I actually did my video this week that that will probably be out shortly after we have our preview up about what the Patriots have been doing with a lot of their fronts and blitzing and stuff on top of that. 28 dropbacks just in the two playoff games they brought in at least one DB that that is insane to have over what like averaging over a dozen plays a game where you are bringing a defensive and that's a defensive back and that's just on passing place like they'll bring those guys on some of the rundowns to and so just the Broncos being short up especially on the edges and with their backs it's going to be pretty huge in this game. New England's front in general has been so disruptive and impressive in these two playoff games and talk about proof of concept I mean that's against to pretty decimated pretty leaky offensive lines obviously the broncos are not that and so that's that is a very fun chess match for this game to and the last thing I want to mention because it's important every time you play against the Broncos and we'll see if it continues with std the way that it was with nicks where a lot of balls going short of the sticks a lot of check downs and tackling in space is like a huge deal against this team and you go back and you watch what happened last week multiple different plays where Arja Harvey is getting ball spit out to him in the flat he's making a guy miss and what should be a play that goes for no gain goes for eight and then the big one was I think it was mims I think it was mims on that little swing out to the left in the left flat where cold bishop just takes a bad angle and what should be a dead play is a 20 yard game like you're gonna you have to make the game go to the other side of the ball here when the Patriots have the ball in this game Derek the number one thing the first thing you were looking for when the Patriots are on offense in this thing is what I think this to me we've talked so many times about these teams that like to play a man coverage and really challenge you the quarterback has to be willing to challenge them back and it's a lot of just like hey buddy can you make 20 super accurate throws in a given game you go back and watch what may was doing in some of those instances against the Texans his pinpoint accuracy like just through a keyhole is phenomenal the covers your touchdown to tomorrow Douglas the one that he spits between two Texans DBs in the red zone for Stefan digs is incredible crazy. It was insane like for him to put it on there where it's it's not just that he gets it on him it's also that he throws it so fast that digs has time to call it into his chest before the DB flying over from the middle hits him like just his ability to make all those tight window throws I think in a game where the DBs are gonna challenge your receivers and they're going to force you to make a lot of those tight throws I think that that's going to show up huge in this game because I think in a lot of ways that can feel like a volatile thing it's like a lot of tight window throws can you do it drake me is proven for four months now five months that he can do that against just about anybody and I do think that that's going to show a few in this game famous last words but yeah like that doesn't seem to bite drake me like guys who are willing to just rip it into crowded areas typically like you expect bad bad bounces that can lead to interceptions or high variance plays but I have the utmost confidence in drake me to throw it into as title window as he wants to hear the funny part about this I I'm 100% with there I'm like the accuracy that he is consistently shown his ability to fit balls into those tight windows at the same time I still think that's the best way for the Broncos to approach the game because if you look at what's happened in the regular season and then into the playoffs the volatility with him in the pocket which I think you can do it. You're a five point underdog like you need a couple turnovers to go your way you need some of those volatile place to go your way playing man coverage is kind of pushed into that place a little bit more often than sitting back and playing zone coverage has this season that's a 4.9% sac rate against zone coverage per next gen it was 11.4% against man coverage and then you look at what's happened in the playoffs they were really good team the patriots were when blitzed in the regular season but it has been more volatile in the playoffs he's taken three sacks on 18 dropbacks they have six successful dropbacks on the 18 blitz plays they have over their first two playoff games and so the Broncos do a fantastic job with their past rush plan when they're bringing five it's not just we're bringing five of every one's running straight like the intricacies and the creativity with the stunts the games the pressures that they bring combined with his just pension for holding out of the ball a little bit trying to make things happening as man coverage I just think that's your best path forward if you're the Broncos even if his ball placement allows him to survive in that world in a way it might not for some other quarterbacks I honestly agree like it is the best way to I think handle I just I guess I'm saying like I just have faith that may will be able to handle it but like with the Z zone versus man thing the thing about man coverage is that in a lot of ways it kind of eliminates decision making for the quarterback it's just a lot of like is my guy open and can I make the throw like it's not as much processing whereas with a lot of the zone stuff it's like okay who's dropping where am I reading the rotation right do I have you know was that guy giving me like a fake look with his own eyes like was was that really where he's going to line up in terms of like is it cover two is it quarters all that stuff may is phenomenal at that like he's already one of the best pre-imposed snap decision makers I think in the league in the ball comes out incredibly quick that's why he doesn't take sacks against zone but against man he'll go one to two to three and wait for somebody to be open but the Patriots receivers still aren't great and so if nobody's open he's probably just going to stand on his spot Nick Benito is going to get him or John Franklin Myers is going to crush the pocket whatever it is so even though I have the utmost faith and the ability to do it I do agree you probably do have to lean into the volatility. I thought the bills did a good job last week and the bills game plan I mean they're going to be sick rewatching that game like I thought that the bills offensive plan in that game was really good like they gave the Broncos offense consistent issues when they weren't turning the ball over and to me was a lot of just misdirection and I candy all over the place it's we're sending guys in motion the nickels traveling with him so he's flying out there we're sending a cross or back behind it some of the play action and movement stuff that they were doing just like getting the defense moving horizontally as much as possible and the bills are the most motion heavy offense in the NFL the Patriots aren't that but I wonder do we see a little bit more pre-smart movement from New England and then trying to lean into that where you're getting displacement from some of those guys in the same way the bills were able to last week I don't know the answer but I did just it's an interesting contrast between the two styles typically with what the offenses are and I wonder if the Patriots try to do a little bit more of that stuff. Yeah I have no idea I hadn't actually thought it because honestly a lot of my favorite stuff from that feels game was a lot of like getting guys in motion and running like really good manbeaters I thought they had in that game and so I don't know I feel to me like the Patriots offense is a little bit more like just spread it out let drape make Drake may pick a side a little bit or they're just going to block it up and do play action stuff but that actually is the other thing that I would like to talk about a little bit there when the Patriots try to just block it up against this but stuff it's not great and that's where you can get made like kind of stuck in this like they're a better verse the blitz team when they spread it out and let Drake may make them right when they want to go like seven and protection take some shots they don't block it up particularly well in the Broncos really get after it. I mean if you're a Broncos fan you got to be coming into this extremely confident that your past rush is going to give you a shot to make a splash play right from what we've seen from the Patriots over the last two weeks. Oh absolutely that you need the past rush to win you the game like in the same way that the Texans were able to ask or the Texans defense almost one in the game last week that they were in the game because of what the past rush was doing that's what you need with much better play from your offense if you're the Broncos in this game which I am interested to see I just think it's a it's a different look this week particularly we shouted out will Campbell against the Texans and it was the type of thing that could lose you a game if the Texans offense was anything resembling competent and here you go here's another opportunity with the Broncos but particularly from the Campbell side of things I wonder I wonder how he feels about this matchup and this sounds crazy to say about a guy in Nick Benito who is a defensive player the year type of candidate type of player but maybe this is a shot at a reprieve because the guys who have this season and the guys that people thought would give will Campbell fits coming into the NFL were the big hulking monsters whose hands scraped the ground while they were standing straight up you know like the guys over the course of the year the guys that have really given will Campbell the most trouble miles Garrett will Anderson Drey Mont Jones Bradley Chup yeah yeah Diabbie Odefeo way in the wild card round like all of these guys that have 34 35 inch arms just can absolutely hold will Campbell out of distance the Broncos past rushers are really good but that's not them I mean Nick Benito Jonathan Cooper both are not guys with these huge wing spans and arms that can like I said just dunk on will Campbell it's it's all about speed and so that's it's a different challenge and this could age really poorly but I would bet that's a challenge will Campbell in the Patriots would rather deal with than just a guy who is a bigger specimen than what your left tackle can deal with we've seen guys get the corner on him know yes still he that is a problem that I'm and yes that and that is what Benito is and so I do think that in this game Derek it would not be surprising to see Nick Benito specifically or the Broncos past rush come away with like three or four really big place yeah I still think they could to because like and will Anderson I think it's the funniest one because will Anderson is long for his size but he also is pretty fast and a good player and he got straight around will Campbell a couple of times and so I do wonder if Nick Benito can do a little bit of that as well. No I'm trying to set deep I'm trying to hopefully having a tight end on my side as often as possible if I'm will Campbell I still think all of that's fair. Two other just random thoughts about when the Broncos have the ball in this game one the Patriots this year the the Bucks game comes to mind. They've had some moments where they have allowed some like chunk plays against teams that use a lot of like no formations where the tight end will be. In line as like you know like a one by three with three receivers on the other side the Broncos do that a lot the Broncos do that like a top seven rate in the NFL so that's just one thing to think about and the other one the Broncos like. Some of those receivers and like spent specifically a court and sought not a slot if they play in the red zone the size matchup against the guy like Marcus Jones. Is something that I would think about like in the red zone specifically in this game because I can't remember I think it was the Christian Kirk touchdown was like a slot fade in that game last week against the Texans and so can you get a size matchup against a smaller corner and some of those condensed areas. And like talking about the Christian Kirk play do you remember the Falcons game they did a great job thinking about yeah maybe that's the one I'm thinking about. They got multiple times or I think maybe one time he was just aligned in the slot but there was another time where they motioned him from out to in to get him on Marcus Jones and they I think London scored two or three touchdowns that game doing stuff like that's a great show. Yeah, they're not that many games if you look at the Patriots they in the back half of the season since week 10 there were only two games where the Patriots allowed a positive e-paper dropback. This week 15 against the bills and week 16 against the Ravens part of that is the quarterbacks they played over that time they played the jets twice they played Joe Flacco they played Jackson dark they played Quinn viewers but now like they're playing against these teams that are play off teams and they're still beating them up so there's aren't a lot of examples if you're trying to go back and look at where the Patriots been vulnerable on defense like you only got a couple games to choose from at this point so we'll see what happens. Alright, let's get to the next one here before we do let's take our first quick break. At new balance. We believe if you run your runner however you choose to do it because when you're not worried about doing things the right way you're free to discover your way. And that's what running's all about. Run your way at new balance dot com slash running. Idle money lies in your current account picking crumbs out of its belly button wondering should I eat them. But when you start investing with monzo your money's always busy it turns on regular investments invests your spare change and tops up your stocks and shares. I say it even helps you make sense of risk and return. Monzo the bank that gets your money moving. You could get back less than your invest monzo current account required UK residents 18 plus decent C supply. Tired of the I know it's here somewhere moment the new scan snap I X 2400 scanner means you'll never search for a receipt again. Our simplest scan snap experience yet just press the blue button and instantly convert documents into digital files you can find in seconds perfect for busy professionals who need organization without complexity with instant one touch scanning 45 pages per minute speed and automatic data extraction the I X 2400 saves your files exactly where you need them. No more mystic spence claims or lost warranties just peace of mind knowing everything important is safe and instantly accessible. Ready to stop wasting time hunting for paperwork visit scan snap it dot com slash podcast and discover how simple document management can be scan snap the smart way to work. All right. Rams at sea hawks sea hawks are two and a half point favorites which essentially means with them at home this is like a toss up game. This is as good as it gets like to have all bears morning I've had to do this week aside this is about as good as an NFC championship game can get I knew you'd get there. It's it's so good I mean air and shots at it is the seventh playoff game in history between two teams that are over 30% in DVO a it's. I don't know and it's not to say that I mean we've seen super bowls be surprising before it's not to say that this decides anything with finality but. These are the two teams of the season for me I think like when I look back on this year these are the teams that have been. Excellent the most consistently from beginning to end I would say. By DVO a and that that same tweet there air shot said this is the best match up of the last 47 years by DVO 47 years. That's a saying that doesn't define everything but anecdotally it feels like an incredibly good game between two really really good teams they play two great games already this year and so the historical numbers would back up how great of a match up this feels like it is and I think the two other games leading into this led me to the thought of. One this game painting at this way of it being one of the best like eight playoff matches we've ever seen in terms of quality it's the best one in 47 years going by DVO a. This also. At least in my lifetime and maybe somebody will correct me if there's a listener out there who has a better answer this is the best three game series I've probably ever seen like think about how insane the first game was how insane the second game was these were decided by. Three points and even that feels like it under cells how close both of these games were and then now they get to play again where they are in the NFC championship game it's the final game going before the Super Bowl and I think if we ranked these four playoff teams at least me personally I would rank them one and two like I'm 100% with you Dave I think these are. The two teams that have been the most excellent the most often and consistently the entire season like I just I don't know if we've ever seen a pair of teams play three times in a season and it be of this quality like this with these stakes which exact which one were you looking at what you. Division rivalry was looking up I mean the one that came to mind and it actually it doesn't pass the test but 2013 nine or see exactly what I was looking up yeah that is pretty good one of those games was a blow it was a 29 they played in week two it was. We had just talked about this game recently on the show I was at this game it was a Sunday night game the C.O. X 129 to three they lost the second game 19 to 17 and then obviously you get the. Richard Sherman craftry moment in the NFC championship game and so there that one was pretty good but the first game did not hold up and so when it comes to like the two regular season matchups playing into this one I'll be curious of people listening have a better example but I would argue. I would love to hear some examples because I know I know we're not thinking of something but this this it's it's got to be up there if it's not the best and just think about like how both of these teams arrived at this moment like the Rams after they won that 2021 Super Bowl which really even in that moment it felt like they were threading a need a little a little bit you trade for Von Miller your offense goes on such a heater in the playoffs you get it over the finish line you win the Super Bowl it just changes the way we think about McVeigh and Stafford and like everything they did and why they went out to get him. It all is worth it like they all they make good on every single bit of it then you have the disaster 2022 season and it really did feel like okay like the team is getting so young in 2023 is there any way that they can build up the rest of this thing enough to get themselves another shot while Stafford is still the quarterback and then you see what they did over the last couple years it was a resounding yes like their competitor again like their contender again we know that coming into the year but what is Stafford's health look like and so all of these like kind of sliding doors moments about what would have needed to fall into place for the Rams to have a season like this and to be in this position again before Stafford retires ends up happening and so now you have a real shot to get your second one with him in McVeigh in this five year period and it's it's interesting in the sense that of the four teams playing this weekend and we know you can't guarantee anything but three of these teams probably feel great about the long term outlook like Bonyx is obviously heard but the Broncos and the Patriots have these young quarterbacks that have proven they can get him here. Most I mean Sam Darnal just signed in Seattle and most of the pieces on that roster with like the exceptions of Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence are young players. It kind of feels like now or never for the Rams and I know like Stafford's got another year on his deal he might play next year but you cannot take that for granted and so the urgency in that building has to be at an all time high like this is you have to take advantage of this your one game away from getting back Stafford turns 38 the day before the Super Bowl. And yeah and and he and me he let's say he even comes back we spent all of August ringing our hands about how much time he was spending in the in the health trailer and he defied all of our expectations but we know that stuff is real like that's that was not unreasonable just because he managed to have this very healthy MVP caliber season you never know what next year is going to bring even if he's healthy next year this was the best season of his career. Yeah he was a first team all pro quarterback in a year where you have all of these MVP level guys still in their primes and I know Lamar was banged up it was a weird my home season whatever like the fact Stafford just had the best season of his career by almost any measure and so even if he is healthy again are we going to see him playing at this level the Rams offense of line the past protection we've talked about how important that connection is like the quality of the past protection with this team often plays directly into the type of season we get from Matthew Stafford. The Rams offense of wine was excellent this year like it does feel like everything that needed to happen for them fell into place and will it happen again. And then you go up the road to Seattle and all they did this year was build the best team in the NFL. But for all we talked about sliding doors moments the Seahawks defense we always knew this was possible like you watched the second half of their year and what they were in the second half of the season. Then being the best defense in the league shouldn't surprise anyone I think all of us were confident that they were going to be in play to do it and now they're even better than we would have thought. But the offense new offensive coordinator new quarterback you trade DK Metcalf you multiple new starters along the offensive line and every single bit of it came together as the best possible version of whatever you could have hoped. And so all of those things falling into place and then the kind of beautiful thing about this match up with these stakes to me between these coaches is that Mike McDonald was hired to be that sort of transformational coach on defense. The same way that Sean McVan Kyle Shanahan were supposed to be on offense and he has been that like he has been everything you could have hoped as like the guy who could go toe to toe with the put with the coaches in your division and it really does feel like this transformational thing that is built the Seahawks into. An absolute monster part of it is definitely the hiring pool and we know the list of offensive candidates has been kind of picked clean over the years because of the success of people like Sean McVan Kyle Shanahan but. Don't you kind of get the feeling that Mike McDonald is launching this copycat thing of the teams want this for the first time that I can remember the defensive calling head coach like that play caller that guy is like it's invoked it's sexy it is what people want. And I think you have to give a lot of credit to shot or to Mike McDonald for that it's going to be curious I'll be curious how many teams can actually replicate those guys right six cheap limitations that play him out by you he's the best defensive play call on the NFL right now probably right and you have a defense that. Has 15 16 guys yes that like to get a start for other people like tile cotta was on the bench for them and he could start for like half the NFL right now like and the other thing too with like and this is actually true of all the offensive play callers obviously. We hire some of these coaches off these trees and it will be like oh if you just do a lot of the same stuff they're doing that we see schematically it'll work. And it misses the point that so much of why this works is like the very fine coaching details like making sure you're playing with the right leverage and they're tackling hard and and they're you know not giving up gap integrity and they're rush lanes and stuff like that like it's not just the X's and O's it's how dialed in a lot of the details are when you watch Mike McDonald it's. Him and Fange or probably as like detail oriented of defensive play callers as we've had in the league over the last decade or so. It's gets you the in the Rams have the ball in this game Derek the number one thing you got an eye on when the Rams are on offense in this one is what. I think what I wanted to start with is that we know that the way the Rams play offense is that they're safe play is what they do in the run game they run a lot of duo just keeps them on script and then in the past game it's very volatile they want to throw intermediate they want to throw down the field. The the thing is and we've talked about this before the sea hawks make that as difficult on you as possible and I've talked about before Stafford is really good at tackling the middle of the field against them in a way that is. Pretty unique he's like kind of the only guy who can actually fight the sea hawks over the middle of the field but they still make it really really difficult and where most teams have been able to attack Seattle a little bit is okay if you're going to take away everything in her midi intermedia and deep will throw at the backs the sea hawks have seen more targets to the backs than any team in the NFL. The Rams at 11% throw to their backs less than any other team in the NFL like they are not a passing game that like it's willing to dink and dunk and chip away they're going to consistently take their shots and I think we saw especially in that first game if a couple of those shots don't go your way and the running game starts to fall apart a little bit they really don't have that many things on offense like they're really good at the two or three things they do they kind of only do two or three things. So here's here's what I think is interesting is that I agree with you to an extent that was they don't throw the ball to the backs but they do have an underneath passing game that is actually kind of surprising like when you I did a video about it this week it'll be out on our YouTube channel this weekend. What's been cool about watching the Rams kind of schematic evolution over the last seven years of the McVeira is that they were a play action heavy team and then when Stafford got there they became this gun drop back team and then over the last couple of days. So in the last couple of years they've come all the way back around to being a play action team and there's a lot of reasons for that but the biggest difference between the Rams as a play action team in 2018 and a ramp the Rams as a play action team in 2025 is where those throws are going. So on 41.5% of their play action passes this year they've gone between zero and nine area arts which is the fourth highest rate in the league when they drop back they don't want to throw the ball short. But when they're in some of this 13 personnel stuff they're more than happy to let Colby Parkinson kind of block down for a second release to the flat and then just spit it to him and against the sea ox they did a very good job of that in the second game and I think that's kind of the right. Right mode moving forward is like can we just consistently try to chip away with those sorts of plays that are connected to the 13 personnel run game that wasn't that dynamic in the second game but they had a 40% success rate they kept chipping away at it and so I think the short underneath passes are kind of connected to the run game because that's what a decent chunk of their play action stuff is looked like this year. I just I think if I'm Seattle I'm not that worried about that like I don't think I'm scared of because I'm not scared of any of the Rams tight ends with the ball in their hands with the way that I would be with some other like maybe Terrence Ferguson. But otherwise like I'm more scared of them getting down the field which they do do some of that in 13 personnel as well but like I'm just not that scared of Colby Parkinson turning six into 15 whereas I think I would be scared a little bit more of some of the Rams backs capability to do that they just don't give them chances to do it very often and even a lot of the stuff that they'll throw short is just screens to the backs which their screen game can be pretty good but it's not a lot of we're just going to throw the over the ball check down type stuff. A lot of those like six that turned 20 completions to the tight ends there were a couple of those in the last game is because there's no in there. It's because that entire area has been vacated because of how guys are playing the rut and so that has to it Colby Parkinson's not dust and anybody in space but if you can get Colby Parkinson where no one else is around that's what they were doing in the last game. I'm mainly just curious how well all of this is going to work and when I said these are the teams that I'm going to think about years from now like the teams of the season this Rams pivot to 13 is a huge part of that like it's been such a cool story that halfway through the year. They were like what if we just put them all on the field and then it became their offense and the Thursday night game against Seattle was kind of this crowning moment they hit the see hawks for 318 yards and four touchdowns out of 13 personnel on that Thursday. Night the weird thing is every week since then they haven't been as good at running the offense out of 13 personnel and in the playoffs in particular 30 snaps of 13 personnel in the two postseason games their yards per play has dipped from 6.2 to 3.2. So just cut in half completely the other interesting thing you know they scored 32 touchdowns out of 13 this year. What should be that surprising because they're running the ball a lot of it down there and then that's a lot of like the Devante just split out by himself place. Yeah, I mean it makes sense but it's still I think it's wild just considering it wasn't how they like it's not what they started the year doing and then to score that many touchdowns out of that personnel group point being they haven't scored a touchdown in the playoffs out of 13 and they really they barely did it against the bears last week. I expect that to change I do too but even with the so Devante was hurt in the week 16 game right and so that may be one of the reasons they were leaning on it as hard as they were. But they were the Rams used 13 personnel 61% of their plays in that game and to me the most important differences and this is kind of what I mean Derek about just trying to be kind of modest and patient in the ways you're trying to move the ball for most of the game in that game against the see ox the second time they had 61% 13 personnel they were in the ball 30 times and they threw the ball 24 times when they played in the first time it was a lot more 13 personnel runs and not as many passes and so I think it's just can we be in 13 and essentially anything is on the table when we're in that the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they were in the first time they to excuse me, the Rams only hit two explosives against the Bears in the run game and they were both just 10 yard gains. But the way that Kyron Williams, like I said, in that game as well as the second Seahawks game, the way that he just grits out tough yardage and turns what could be a three yard run into a six yard gain purely through either squeezing through a gap or just rolling off of contact like he has been crucial for them. The Rams in week 16 are the only team this year that rushed for a hundred yards between the tackles against Seattle. That's all it was. Yeah. And I think that was actually really smart because some of the negative runs in the first game, they're trying to pull somebody, they're trying to kick somebody out. And it's like, we're just going to build a wall where we're gapping you out with these like multiple tight unsets to one side and we're just going to run straight downhill runs. And that's what they were doing over and over and over again. It wasn't anything fancy. They tried to go outside the tackles on the first fourth down of that game and when absolutely nowhere and everything else was between the tackles, which you can look at it and like you look at it and say, oh, 39% success rate, that's not that good. But go watch it back and it's pretty impressive the way they were able to just stay on schedule. That volume on 39% like that's actually fun. Yeah. And again, I think it's about giving creens to the play action stuff you're trying to do off of it where everything becomes tied together because that's what was happening where I think a lot of the 13 personnel stuff they've done at other points this year are them trying to take like deep shots off of it. But if you because I think that's what people fit against the sea ox specifically, this is why this is interesting because when you're playing 13 against most teams, you're getting based defense. And so that allows you to break it out where you can take these big shots off of it. Well, the sea ox don't play based defense. And so you're getting nickel to your third peene team personnel stuff. So trying to create explosive passes off of it, that's not really in your best interest. It's in your best interest to see, can we get a bunch of guys in the box, make sure their eyes are in the back field because they're so worried about stopping the run. And then we're spitting the ball out to the flat in a tight end because the safety has his eyes in the back field. Like it to me, it's just about tying those things together in a way that doesn't necessarily have to be explosive. You just kind of have to pick your spots four or five times over the course of the game. That actually makes sense to me in the same way that we'll talk about teams who like to scream a lot as like a replacement for the run game. If they're using a lot of that like the short stuff as like replacement for the run game in terms of just we want to be efficient and stay ahead of the stakes all the time, that actually does make a lot of sense to me, especially when we know how, how fearsome the the sea hawks pass rush can get if you give them like a third and seven, which I do think like if they get five, third and seven pluses in this game as opposed to only one or two, that to me, but like it's probably the difference in this game. It was 40% success out of 13 last game. I would not be surprised if it was worse in this game because when you go back and you watch it, those downhill duo runs, those guys are getting to the second level in that game in week 16. So fast. Like we're talking about we're it's a little shoulder nudge to the first level and then I'm already up on the linebacker and that creates a lot of kind of what turns into like de facto one on ones for the sea hawks defensive line, which they can win. We see them do that all the time. Like Leonard Williams standing up, Warren McClendon in the hole, if he's going to not have a lot of help, we can see that happening by our Murphy crossing Coleman Shelton's face. If it's going to be one on one, we can see that happening. It just didn't happen as consistently in the second game. But if you told me after the game was over that the sea hawks defensive front dominated this game, that would not shock me whatsoever. Even with thoughts in back. Yeah, even with thoughts in back, I think that's possible. Yes. And because there are a lot of one on ones created, even against tight ends, like you were back to the first game. One of the duo runs. It's just Parkinson on new osu and new osu walks him back into the play. Like there are there is enough talent along that front. If you're going to have three essentially one on one box on some of those downhill runs, I do think the sea ox are set up to win decent amount of those. They just didn't do it as often in week 16 as I anticipated they would. And I was going to say it sounds like excuse making, but that's a Thursday night game. Late in the season as opposed to you're on a regular schedule, you had a week off as well. I don't think that'll mean everything, but it could be at least a slight edge when you're talking about something as physical as the run game. We talked about it a little bit with throwing the ball over the middle of the field. And the ramps throwing the ball over the middle of the field against the sea hawks. Derek has mentioned this a bunch of different times. And there are multiple plays from the last game where you see this where Stafford is uniquely positioned to attack that area against this defense in a way that almost no other quarterback is for two different reasons. His ability to move zone defenders with his eyes is fantastic. You go back to the play in the shadow of his own goalpost in the first half of that game where he throws that little dagger to Puka that's just over the hands of Ernest Jones. And you watch his eyes on that play. He keeps them to the right just long enough to get Ernest Jones to take one step off the hash. And that one step is enough for him to layer that ball over. And then the play and overtime he does the exact same thing where he moves them just the hair and that with the with the arm strength and with how quickly you can get the ball there, that's enough to create an explosive play. This year the sea ox against all other teams, every other team in the league 0.05 EPA per drop back on throws to the middle of the field. This touchdowns 12 interceptions 0.05 is like a top eight rate. Stafford this year 0.28 EPA per drop back 29 of 48 407 yards five touchdowns 8.5 yards per attempt. 30% of Seattle's downfield yardage given up over the middle of the field. So 10 plus yards downfield in the middle. 30% of it was that one night against Matthew sapper like nobody. Nobody really. And Baker may feel the hit him for a chunk in that crazy game early in the year two. Those two Baker and Stafford in those two games have accounted for 51 percentage of the 51 percent of the yards given up downfield and over the middle. Without those two games, Seattle's giving up like 20 yards of game in those instances. Wow. And because it's not just this version of McDonald's defense, we, one of our favorite games of the like recent era is the Ravens game that the Stafford played against them. I think 2023 when it was Mike McDonald's defense. And Stafford was he's really like brave is almost the wrong word. He's really the only quarterback abrasion enough to challenge the sea. Yes, audacious. He's really the only guy who is just like dude, I've been doing it for 17 years. I still have the strongest arm in the league. I'm just going to move you a little bit and trust that I can put it past your year. Like almost every other quarterback unless they really do a good job of tying earnest Jones down with the concept, which again, that's really hard because he's a good player. Almost every other team and quarterback is scared to actually challenge them there. But Matthew Stafford's not and even in the first game, they like kind of flubbed a couple of opportunities like there was one where the Vante Adams was open on like a deep drift route. Stafford threw it a little bit short because I think Byron Murphy like exploded the center right into his face. There was another one where he put like a post route on the Vante Adams in between traffic. He's not able to come down if it like there. Stafford puts the ball there over the middle of the field. And if the guys make plays like it's, that could be where they get them. One thing that their bears did last week and I think people are probably are going to be quick to say like well, the Rams offense just hasn't looked the same. You know, over the last four or five games as a looked when they played against Seattle in that week 16 game. I think that's totally fair. One of the things that bears defense obviously did really well last week is all of the pressures they were bringing, especially those DB pressures were given the land. Rams a lot of trouble. Part of me, my first thought about that is well, that's like something they've never really leaned into that extent. And so you jump on the Rams a little bit in those moments. When I go back and watch the week 16 game, a part of me thinks I don't want to be blitzing a ton because the last time in that game, that's where a lot of the chunk plays for the Rams were coming. Like when the Siouxs would be sending second level defenders and vacating space, that's where the chunks over the middle of the field happen multiple different times. Stafford against the blitz in that game. Of 13 for 140 yards. And so even if the bears had some success with it last week, Derek, like I'm in a place where I'm not sure I'm bringing a lot of second level defenders if I'm the Siouxs and vacating any of that space. And because that only worked for the bears because it worked on like a, they committed to it for the entire game. It wasn't just like, oh, one or two of these like one off covers zero calls worked and oh, they just did a really good job of scheming an open guy, an open rusher on this play. It was like you commit to it for the entire thing and you could see Sean McVay was spinning a little bit. They were like, I don't know if we have a cover zero plan today coming into this game and they were clearly spinning a little bit trying to, you know, going to some of those, we're just going to throw the smoke screen, try to get out of this drive and that kind of stuff didn't work. And so I think they struggled figuring out what they wanted to do against cover zero because again, it was a, this might happen on every play. That's just not what the Seahawks do. Like sometimes on third down, they'll bring zero and challenge you, but even that for them is like a pretty rare change up and I would be shocked if like the whole reason the McDonald defense works right. And this is true of like Fangeo too, like a similar style defense. They play how they play like they are not like a we're going to do super crazy things and stuff like that. So I would be pretty startled if they have like a outsized blitz rate in this game. I think it's probably worth mentioning too. And it was really impressive work by the bears. I don't get me wrong, but snowy shitty field, bad visibility conditions cold as hell as opposed to, you know, I think it's going to be 40 and clear on an artificial turf field. Like I don't, I don't know that you would get the same return on investment from blitzing the shit out of staffer in this game as you did on Sunday. Two specific plays I'll bring up in the week 16 game before I move to the other side of the ball. They pukah had a double move as wide open at the end of the second quarter. And they did a really good job of setting that up. They emotion the tight ends at number one, the tight end motions in. So not poke it. Pukah's the number one receiver in a condensed split. And you can see the safety and the corner to that side, really accounting for him running a dig from that split. And instead he runs a double move. He's wide open staffer and misses him. So trying to get a couple of those were like, all right, we know you want to turn the middle of the field into like a snake pit. Can we try to get you because of that one time in this game? And that I would be on the lookout for and then the Xavier Smith chunk play in that game came out of empty. And the sea hawks this year have been an average past defense out of empty. And obviously average is not bad, but it's bad compared to what the sea hawks are in a lot of other situations. Exactly. And so though and the Rams did it a couple times. The Rams did a couple plays on empty in that game. And so I would not be surprised based on their success with it. And just an area where the sea hawks have been relatively a little bit worse if we see a couple more of those in this game. And like quickly the Rams don't do as much empty as they used to, but like they won a Super Bowl doing exactly that. So like it's in the Sean McVeigh playbook somewhere. All right. Let's take our last quick break and then come back and shout a little sea hawks offense Rams defense. At New Balance. We believe if you run, you're a runner. However you choose to do it. Because when you're not worried about doing things the right way, you're free to discover your way. And that's what running's all about. And your way at newbalance.com slash running. Idol money lies in your current account picking crumbs out of its belly button wondering, should I eat them? But when you start investing with Monzo, your money's always busy. It turns on regular investments, invests your spare change and tops up your stocks and shares iso. It even helps you make sense of risk and return. Monzo, the bank that gets your money moving. You could get back less than your invest. Monzo current account required UK resident 18 plus T's and C's apply. Tired of the, I know it's here somewhere. Moment. The new scan snap IX 2400 scanner means you'll never search for a receipt again. Our simplest scan snap experience yet. Just press the blue button and instantly convert documents into digital files you can find in seconds. Perfect for busy professionals who need organization without complexity. With instant one touch scanning, 45 pages per minute speed, an automatic data extraction, the IX 2400 saves your files exactly where you need them. No more missed expense claims or lost warranties. Just peace of mind knowing everything important is safe and instantly accessible. Ready to stop wasting time hunting for paperwork? Visit scansnapit.com slash podcast and discover how simple document management can be. Scan snap. The smarter way to work. All right, Derek, number one thing you've got an eye on when the Seahawks have the ball in this game is what? I think part of me was, you know, how the Seahawks are going to be able to dictate getting base personnel out of the Rams defense and how they're going to be able to run the ball because in the first game, brand the ball incredibly poorly against base defense, Randle Ball fairly well got some explosives out against base defense. But to me, actually, the more I think about this game, it is how much can we make Sam Darnell dizzy, which Shula has done a good job of obviously at multiple stops now. And to me, there were so many different little things that they did that really bugged Sam Darnell in the past handful of games. Obviously, he throws the interception to Kobe Turner where he's popping off the line of scrimmage, which is a great change up for the Rams because they'll do some funky stuff, but they don't do that a whole lot. And so I thought that that was a great change up. They did for a lot of, especially in the second game, they were doing a lot of like, if Seattle motioned their slot receiver one side to the other, the Rams guy would run with him. It looks like man coverage. They pop out into zone. They got an interception off of him doing that. And then in the third quarter, there was another incompletion where Sam Darnell sees that he thinks that he can go look to the left side and they have this little stick concept going with one guy just on the little curl route and another one running into the flat. He thinks it's going to break out differently based on the slot corner running with him. It doesn't, he has to turn that down. It's an incompletion doing little stuff like that. And then I think if you can disrupt his timing, I think we've seen with, especially because Seattle at times played pretty condensed. If the Rams edge players and linebackers or sometimes they'll roll down a safety sometimes like Quentin Lake is near the line of scrimmage, immediately getting a hand into a chest of that slot receiver and just disrupting their timing, getting up the seam across the field, whatever it is. Sam Darnell, like, kind of needs things to go in the exact order that they're supposed to go. And so if you can mess with him a little bit in that way, you saw him get a couple of bad plays the last time these two teams split. I run the risk of making Seahawks fans a little mad here, but have you stopped to consider how much shit had to go right for Seattle to avoid a narrative heading into this game of, first of all, the game might be in LA if a bunch of shit doesn't go a different way. And then for the narrative to not be, Chris Shula owns Sam Darnell. There's nothing Sam Darnell can do because think about, I mean, it requires a receipt or a part of the time. And several two point conversions, one of which being the goofiest play of the entire 2025 season to get the Seahawks here. And that's all water under the bridge. It doesn't matter. They've got the home game and they look terrifying. But Sam Darnell has thrown multiple picks and three games this year, two of those coming against the LA Rams. And it's just what Derek said. Like go back to last year. Go back to last year. And then obviously, I see Shula, the Vikings Rams game. Yeah. So that three game sample size, if the Seahawks don't claw back to that win, we would be hearing all week about like, can Sam Darnell keep from sinking this Seahawks season? So I just, I think that's interesting to think about. And I definitely think it's the number one thing in this matchup is, can Chris Shula throw enough at Sam Darnell or conversely can Sam Darnell overcome that because the pressure is going to be there, the stunts are going to be there, the weird shit dropping in coverage is going to be there. And you just have to, you don't even have to make enough plays. You have to avoid making the two or three back breaking plays that he's made in these games before. I think part of the reason that they've been able to avoid that over the last couple of weeks for the most part is that the way they've run the ball consistently in those two games against the Niners, I'm not sure that happens in this game. Like the Rams of defense is just a different sort of beast against the run and just the amount of stunts and shifting and just like firing linebackers and crashing ends like their run game plan defensively is so good. And I honestly think especially against the run like, Lamin in spates just are good in that defense. Like they do a really good job of what is asked for them in that defense. And so I find it harder to imagine, obviously the 55 year Kenneth Walker touched down in the last game, but down to down consistency. I find it harder to imagine the sea ox running the ball as well in this game is to have over the last couple of weeks. That being said, I do think if you look at what happened in like the back half of that game last time, third quarter into the fourth quarter, I do feel like clenku back was like starting to really get a handle on what he wanted to do and how he wanted to attack them. Like that sequence there, the drive that was in the late third early fourth quarter when they're trying to claw back into the game, they really started picking on matchups with JSN outside against base defense. And that becomes my biggest question about this game in the first matchup. The Rams played nickel to the sea ox 12 personnel like 65% of the time. Last time they played base to the sea ox 12 personnel on 18 of 19 snaps. Quinn Lake didn't play. So maybe that's part of the consideration, but the sea ox were really able to throw the ball against those base looks out of 12 personnel. And I really start like they felt like they started to click into that leader in the game. And so for me, there is like a version of this on first and 10, plaction in breakers, which the Rams aren't very good against. We're going to play like JSN having a little space and leverage against those outside corners. Like I do see a world where the sea ox can consistently throw the ball out of heavier looks on early downs in the same way they really were able to in the second half of that game. And I think honestly to the point of like making some of those DBs because like their DBs will all click and close on stuff. And so if you can get some of these double moves or whatever it's going to be, but the other one was the AJ Barnard touchdown at the end of the SX game where they're they're just running like this play action, you know, it looks like weak zone to the right. And then they boot back into the other way. So it's a shenanahann classic. Exactly. And but it's such a good like these Rams safeties are going to pin down on stuff. And AJ Barnard looks like he's running that corner route and it just looks like weak flood. And then he just bends it back and runs that deep post in front of his face. And so I think just scheming up a couple of shot plays that way is probably going to be their best bet because I think too when you watch a lot of what the Rams DBs were able to do and how they're picking off Sam Darnold, it was a lot of them being aggressive. Like in the first game, they're they have a pressure where they just twist. I think Jared verse he gets a free run on Sam Darnold. Kobe DeRan knows the ball's coming out immediately. He's flying before the ball is even out. There was another one where Cam Kinshens, they're trying to throw a seam route at him to Elijah O'Royal. He's firing on that because he knows that he can get ahead of it. Like them just they know that Sam Darnold wants to get the ball out really quickly in a lot of those instances. And so if the Seahawks can take two or three times where they can kind of play off of that tendency and make the Rams pay for it, I think that that's a pretty good avenue for them. The Rams to your point Robert are bottom five in the league against play action over the last six weeks. And they were dead last and he paper drop back on play action in breakers this season. Ironically, I thought they played fairly well against the bears. They were really good. Yeah, but it's it is something that they that you can get them on over the second half of the year. The last thing I wanted to mention just when it comes to I what is a really successful Seahawks offense game look like this week. The past protection just needs to be better than it was in the last game. Like in multiple different areas, you talk about Derek like when the Patriots are trying to get a lot of bodies and kind of want things up on play action. The Seahawks struggle doing that multiple times last time these two teams played where you got somebody back during it immediately disrupting things even when you got six or seven in protection. And then there were several just one on one losses in the middle of the offensive line. Kobe Turner got Grease able twice, put a forward. I think got send out once. And so there were multiple like quick pressures up the middle from those defensive tackles the last time these two teams played and that you need to pass protect better against this team. If you're going to not send Sam Darnell into that mode that we're worried about. And especially the first game. I don't know if they picked up a twist all day like just the some of the stuff they were sending with verse and some of those defensive linemen. It just didn't feel like they were able to pick any of those up. I think if I had one more note on this on this side of the ball. I think so we all remember the insane Cooper Cup there that he makes at the end of at the end of one of those games where that is against cover two at the end of the second game. That is against cover two like that's an incredible cover two whole shot where you throw it just over the flat defender just under the deep defender. Sam Darnell in general though and the Seahawks passing offense are not very good against cover two and the Rams are like a huge cover two team. Sam Darnell this year has a negative point one six EPA per dropback against cover two which is 27th out of 36 qualifying defensive backs or at a quarterbacks obviously. And then I think what's interesting to his we imagine Sam Darnell in the Seahawks passing offense is like very aggressive right it's all about seeking out explosives all of that and against cover two down the sideline you can do that. Sam Darnell's area is against cover two is 4.5 which is the fourth lowest in the league. He doesn't actually like taking shots against cover two in the way that we think about some of these other you know the Matthew Stafford and Jordan love and Caleb Williams and he's more aggressive quarterbacks and so I think if they can play some of that how well Sam Darnell is basically willing to be aggressive. I think that could swing the game a little bit there. I wonder why that is is it just like the club. The community cares people man. Yeah and abundance of caution. I wanted to say also while we've been recording Mike McDonald did say he's optimistic Charles Cross will be ready to this game so that's huge. Every little bit helps against Jared first. All right. That is all we've got to excellent games on tap very much looking forward to it. We will be back here on Sunday night live to recap those games when encourage you guys to come join us for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Tired of the I know it's here somewhere moment. The new scan snap I X 2400 scanner means you'll never search for a receipt again. Our simplest scan snap experience yet just press the blue button and instantly convert documents into digital files you can find in seconds perfect for busy professionals who need organization without complexity with instant one touch scanning 45 pages per minute speed and automatic data extraction the I X 2400 saves your files exactly where you need them no more mystic spends claims or lost warranties just peace of mind knowing everything important is safe and instantly accessible ready to stop wasting time hunting for paperwork visit scan snap it dot com slash podcast and discover how simple document management can be scan snap the smarter way to work construction shapes our communities it's why the industry's most innovative companies trust ProCore is the leading technology partner for every stage of construction we know that anything is possible when we build together learn more at ProCore.com enjoy while they last. Maltese's bunnies here but only for Easter. Maltese's look on the light side.