The Herd with Colin Cowherd

THE HERD - Hour 1 - NFL schedule release, Niners have it rough, Chargers went too far

42 min
May 15, 202615 days ago
Listen to Episode
Summary

Colin Cowherd analyzes the NFL's intentional schedule-making strategy, highlighting how the league strategically places marquee matchups during holidays and international games while seemingly punishing or rewarding teams based on organizational competence and media relationships. He also discusses quarterback decisions for the Raiders and makes the New York Giants his 'double your win total' pick for the season.

Insights
  • The NFL's schedule construction is highly intentional, not random—teams with strong brands and competent organizations receive favorable scheduling while poorly-run franchises are excluded from prime time
  • Defensive spending is increasingly inefficient in modern NFL economics; teams should prioritize offensive talent and coaching to remain competitive
  • Early bye weeks are disadvantageous for older rosters; 11 of the last 13 Super Bowl champions had bye weeks in week 8 or later
  • Starting rookie quarterbacks requires three conditions: extensive college game experience, strong offensive line protection, and a winnable first matchup
  • The NFL strategically uses scheduling to maintain narrative interest in major media markets (Chicago, New York) throughout the season
Trends
NFL prioritizing offensive talent and star quarterbacks in prime-time scheduling over defensive matchupsShift away from 'participation trophy' prime-time games—teams must earn prime-time slots through organizational competenceInternational games now feature marquee matchups rather than secondary teams, elevating global audience engagementDefensive spending becoming a liability; elite teams (Rams, Chiefs) investing heavily in offensive infrastructureBye week timing emerging as critical competitive advantage, particularly for aging rosters managing injury recoveryRookie quarterback deployment increasingly data-driven, with emphasis on offensive line quality and schedule difficultyNBA tanking reform gaining traction with flat odds and draft relegation proposals to eliminate incentive for losingNFL schedule construction now explicitly designed to maintain competitive narrative in major TV markets throughout season
Companies
iHeart Media
Podcast distribution platform for The Herd; mentioned in intro and outro segments
Fox Sports Radio
Broadcast home of The Herd; live weekday show airs on FSR and FS1
Fox
Broadcasts NFL games and UFL football; mentioned for schedule quality and game placement
ESPN
Jeremy Fowler cited as legitimate reporter breaking TJ Watt trade speculation story
Apple Podcasts
Podcast distribution platform mentioned for accessing Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre
People
Colin Cowherd
Primary host analyzing NFL schedule, quarterback decisions, and organizational strategy
Jason McIntyre
Co-host providing schedule analysis, buy week insights, and counterpoints throughout episode
Patrick Mahomes
Discussed regarding injury recovery timeline and schedule difficulty facing Chiefs
Andy Reid
Quoted on Mahomes' rehabilitation progress and week one readiness against Broncos
Sean Payton
Analyzed as having contentious relationship with NFL league office; schedule appears punitive
Adam Silver
Quoted on new tanking prevention proposal with flat odds and draft relegation system
Jeremy Fowler
Cited as legitimate source predicting TJ Watt trade from Pittsburgh Steelers
John Harbaugh
Praised for draft quality; Harbaugh family name cited as gold standard in NFL coaching
Jim Harbaugh
Referenced as part of Harbaugh family legacy and NFL coaching prestige
Mike McCarthy
Analyzed as offensive-minded coach attempting to modernize Steelers' defensive-heavy approach
Aaron Rodgers
Discussed regarding potential signing and compatibility with Mike McCarthy coaching style
TJ Watt
Subject of trade speculation; analyzed as declining asset in modern offensive-focused NFL
George Pickens
Discussed regarding franchise tag status and off-field concerns; Dak Prescott confirms offseason work
Dak Prescott
Quoted confirming offseason work with George Pickens despite franchise tag situation
Fernando Mendoza
Recommended as starter for week one against Miami; praised for maturity and college experience
Kirk Cousins
Discussed as veteran backup; recommended to sit week one against Miami Dolphins
Clint Kubiak
Quoted on maturity of Fernando Mendoza as rookie quarterback learning from veteran
Roger Goodell
Referenced as using schedule motivation for quarterbacks; implied to influence scheduling decisions
Quotes
"The NFL made a decision over a decade ago. Do a better job at protecting the quarterback and tweak the rules to help offense. So the offense now is the cool side of the ball."
Colin CowherdEarly segment
"The NFL doesn't just do ping pong balls. Oh, the games landed where they landed. It doesn't work that way."
Colin CowherdSchedule analysis segment
"What we've essentially done is create essentially a system of flat odds, so that you have no particularly incentive to be bad."
Adam SilverNBA tanking discussion
"In a perfect world, a rookie watches a mature adult and learns, is there any more mature 22 year old in the league than Fernando Mendoza?"
Clint KubiakRaiders quarterback discussion
"Pittsburgh is as backwards as any organization—they just can't come to grips with what is happening in the league."
Colin CowherdSteelers analysis
Full Transcript
This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed human. Thanks for listening to the HURD podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports Radio in noon to three Eastern, 9 a.m. to noon Pacific. Find your local station for the HURD at foxsportradi.com or stream us live every day on the iHeart Radio app by searching Fox Sports Radio or FSR. Now let's get this party started. You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Here we go. Friday, schedule release Friday. Very few things I dork out to. I geek out to more than the schedule release. For a day anyway, I'm in LA. So is J. Mac, it's the HURD wherever you may be and however you may be watching or listening. Thanks for making us part of your day. So the NFL made a decision over a decade ago. Do a better job at protecting the quarterback and tweak the rules to help offense. So the offense now is the cool side of the ball. Offensive coordinators can make more than defensive coordinators, wide receivers now can make more than your corners like it's the cool side of the ball. So when I looked at the Thanksgiving and the Christmas schedules, which are the best I've ever seen, it's taken the NFL a while to figure out the holidays and the international stuff. What jumped out to me was Thanksgiving Eve Packers Rams, Thanksgiving Bears, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, Black Friday, Broncos, Steelers. One of those teams I think about defense, Pittsburgh, and that's only because they overspend on it. Aaron Rogers is the biggest star on the team. He's the quarterback. Then you go to the Christmas Eve games, Texans, Eagles, Packers Bears, Bills, Broncos, Rams, Seahawks. I'm sorry, it's a lot of star quarterbacks, only the Texans I would say I think of defense first. You could really see the change. It's star quarterbacks, it's star offensive coaches. It is, you could say, well, the Seahawks, JSN and Sam Darnold are moving a lot of jerseys, not the defensive ends. Offense is easier to sell. It's where our imagination gravitates to. And so for me, when I looked at these Christmas and Thanksgiving schedules, knock on wood, everybody stays healthy for Fox, those are great schedules. Those are unbelievable schedules. Star coaches, star quarterbacks, not gonna be a lot of field goals. My entire life, and just because the NFL's well run, doesn't mean they got the schedules figured out years ago. The Thanksgiving slate my entire life, there's been that one game you napped to, you're not really a fan, you're more tryptophan. You know, you're just, you're trying to figure out, yeah, I got a little, I'm gonna sleep through the Lions game. The NFL has really evolved on these holiday schedules, is that they don't just put games on. It is star quarterbacks, it is the biggest games, it's the best games. These are Grammy Packers Rams, that's best game of the weekend. Oh, oh, wait, or is it Eagles, Cowboys is best game of the weekend. I mean, the Black Friday game, that would be second or third best game of the weekend. So, and look at the international games, nine of them now. Remember when the international games were Jacksonville and another team that was slightly less boring than Jacksonville. Look at these games now, these would be the best game of their weekend. Niners Rams, Melbourne, Australia, Ravens Cowboys, Brazil. Those would be the best games of the weekend. I mean, even, you know, Patriots, Lions on Fox, that's first or second best game of a weekend. Those games are now international. The other thing the NFL has done, thank God, is they got rid of that silly, we've gotta give every team one prime time game. You know who didn't get a prime time game? Titans, Jets, Cleveland, Arizona. Why? They're not smartly run, although I think the Browns GM is brilliant, Andrew Berry, but they're not necessarily well run. They're not necessarily smartly capitalized. They signed dumb contracts with quarterbacks. They're revolving doors for coaches. Wait, you haven't earned the right to get a game. This is not a participation trophy league, get out of here. So I think the NFL smartly bailed on that old rule. So now they got Sunday covered, Monday covered, Thursday covered, holidays. I mean, NBA won't sniff a number on Christmas. That schedule is unbelievable. Now they got the international thing figured out. And I remember telling a story years ago that major league baseball, the NFL has always been super intentional with their scheduling, much more than other leagues. Although I think this is the first time they've ever gotten it right. Christmas, Thanksgiving, holiday, first time I've ever looked at all of it and thought, okay, that's how you do it. Don't just put a game, put arguably the best game of the weekend in these spots. But for years and years, like major league baseball couldn't figure this out. They would, you know, they'd have the Red Sox Yankees or the Cards, Cubs, the Giants Dodgers playing a series like Monday through Thursday. Like what are you doing? Those are always weekend series. Create some events, make the regular season matter, be intentional with your schedule. Baseball's gotten much better at that. Okay, so now we've talked about kind of the macro on the holidays international. So this is not the NBA lottery. The NFL doesn't use ping pong balls for their schedule. They are intentional. I absolutely believe the NFL is intentional. And I'll give you an example. Look at the Charger schedule. They're not trying to punish them, but they know the Chargers are gonna be good. So they give them a couple of wins early, Cardinals Raiders. Right, they get them at home. They're gonna be favored in those games, but they know they're gonna be good late. Look at the next seven games, high profile, star quarterbacks, late game windows, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, Ravens, four o'clock starts, eight o'clock starts. Now the bills is one o'clock, but it'll be the one o'clock game of the day. So they don't necessarily punish them at the end. They don't punish them at the beginning. And even with this schedule, they give them a Raiders game before the gauntlet and a Jets game after it. They're not trying to punish the Chargers, but they know they're gonna be good. So they put them early in the season in high profile late games. Now, now it's interesting. Who are they punishing? And I believe this, I'm not a conspiracy guy, but I believe this. I think Sean Payton has a mixed relationship with a league office. He's taken shots at quarterbacks. He's taken Russell Wills. He's taken shots at coaches. NFL does not like friendly fire. Zip it. Look at Denver's schedule. They're punishing them. The first six game, that's the toughest six game schedule I have ever seen in my life. And I'm a geek on this stuff. I am a nerd on schedules. I've never seen anything like that. At Chiefs, Jags, Rams, At Niners, At Chargers, At Seahawks. They could have thrown an Arizona game in there, a Panthers game in there. They could have thrown that Steeler game in there, the Raider game in there. Nope. Front heavy with bow nicks coming off a surgery. I believe, and again, I'm not a conspiracy guy, but I think Sean Payton has irked a few people. He's been outspoken, little friendly fire sometimes in the league. That feels like they're trying to punish him. Now you could say Collin, Denver and the Chargers, I mean, they're in the division. It's the division. No, it's not because the best division in football, statistically, Jay Mack and I have talked about this, is the NFC North, eight games better. Look at the Packers and Lyons schedules. Big brands, unlike the Chargers, a smaller brand where the NFL wants to introduce them in big games, the Packers schedule. The only part of the Packers schedule, the toughest two game slate is week 16 and 17 at the Bears and the Texans. They don't need to advertise the Packers. They're gonna protect the Packers. They'll put some tougher games late. They don't need to advertise them. Chargers, second biggest team in LA, Harbaugh, Herbert, O-Lineback. They wanna put the Chargers up front, not punish them, cause they give them easy landings after it. Easy tarmac before it. Look at the Lyons schedule. Again, big brand in the NFL. Deep down, I think they want the Bills and the Lyons and the Super Bowl. I think it would get it because it's like the two teams in America, it'd be impossible not to root for. Look at the Lyons schedule, where there are two toughest games, week 16 or 17 and 18 at the Bears and at the Packers. Very workable games. I mean, they give them the Bills early. They surround them with the Saints and Jets at home. That is a, the NFL doesn't just do ping pong balls. Oh, the games landed where they landed. It doesn't work that way. So schedules matter and let me throw one more at you. I don't know what this says. I don't think the NFL is punishing anybody, but we've talked about this on the air. The older your team is, the more they get hurt and the longer it takes for older players to recover from injuries. When a young guy gets hurt, remember when Aunt got hurt in the NBA, they're like, oh, he's gonna be out the entire series, game one, I'm ready. Jason Tatum, he'll be out the whole year. It doesn't work, young athletes heal much faster. Check out the Niners schedule. Look at this eight game stretch, starting mid-November. This is an old team with players, Evans and Greenlaw, Bosa, McCaffrey, Trent Williams, older players who have had injuries. That is a rough schedule. Cowboys, Vikings in Mexico, Seahawks at New York cross country. I mean, look at all the trips, Mexico, New York, Midwest. That is a rough eight game stretch for an old team that's gonna get banged up. I mean, it's been like a six year trend in San Francisco, the way they play physically. So I think that San Francisco schedule, I think the Niners will end up, we'll get all excited. Maybe the NFL knows, like we don't know how this is gonna work out, but we wanna keep them in the discussion early. But I thought the Niners late schedule for an old team is rough. So there you go, Jay Mac, I've got nine different takes. Only nine? On the schedule. I did think the Christmas Thanksgiving and international games, by a considerable margin, it's the best the league has ever done with high profile quarterbacks, teams and games. Well, you and I agree, the viewers agree. I'm curious if the coaches agree. You know, you don't want a million primetime games, Colin. That's not great. Owners love that stuff, but the coaches and the players, they don't. Ask Kirk Cousins. I think you have a great take on the Packers. I thought they were the big winners in the schedule. I mean, goodness gracious. Look at the quarterbacks they face. It is like, ooh, and the Bengals for me in the AFC. I know your boy Ryan over there, he's very excited. They faced four teams that had winning records last year. That's it. Yeah, and I think Green Bay, and I do think the Denver schedule. For six games, it's over. I don't think they're making the playoffs. They could, well, I will tell you this. I felt after watching the Denver and Charger schedule release, I have the Chargers winning the division, Denver's a wildcard team. We'll battle Kansas City. I thought it meant that much. Is that, I mean, again, it's not like the Chargers is easy, but look at the games they put in front of their gauntlet and behind it. They're looking, listen, if they go 500. No way. They're facing Patrick Mahomes and five playoff teams from last year. Look at the win totals on those teams. It's some of the teams that people expect to contend for the Super Bowl. If they win three of them, that would be a miracle. Sean Payton's a magical. Okay, so I'll tell you what I do think is the toughest schedule. And I was told the bear schedule. Oh, they may not win four games. I thought Chicago got a huge break. I'll talk about that coming up. Be sure to catch live editions of the herd weekdays in New Neistat 9 a.m. Pacific on Fox Sports Radio, FS1 and the I Heart Radio app. Hey, this is Jason McIntyre. Join me every weekday morning on my podcast, Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. This isn't your typical sports pod pushing the same tired narratives down your throat every day. Straight Fire gives you honest opinions on all the biggest sports headlines, accurate stats to help you win big at the sports book and all the best guests. Do yourself a favor and listen to Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. So I was told the toughest schedule in the NFL was going to be the Chicago Bears. I don't see it. So first of all, the Bears do not face any team off a buy, not once. Secondly, their five toughest games are arguably the Eagles on Monday Night Football at Green Bay, at Seattle, at Detroit and at Buffalo. Look at the games before their toughest games. They'll either be a game before or after, well, where they will be a significant favorite. I mean, the first month alone, they get three home games in the first month. That's a nice start, right? Get some momentum, get some belief. First three home games in the first month, they only face one star quarterback. And of the star quarterback, he may be the least intimidating Jalen Hertz. Then you go do weeks nine, 10 and 11, the middle of the schedule. Well, they get a warm weather team and a dome team at home, Bucks and Saints in Chicago as it's getting cold. Oh yeah, their toughest game is the game in Seattle against the Seahawks, but they even get a break there. They get extra rest Thursday to Monday. So, I mean, their toughest games are to me, Lions, Packers. You know, you start looking at the very end of the season, they get the Packers and the Lions in week 16, 17, they're both at home. So it starts soft, home games, the middle, home games against warm weather and dome teams in a buy, and then it ends Packers and Lions at home. The NFL wants Chicago, they want a Chicago Bears team that is in the news. That's what it feels like to me, is they understand that the power of Ben Johnson, the power of the brand, third biggest TV market in America, it's no gauntlet, they want Chicago to be captivating the entire way. This to me is a tough schedule, the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes is coming off an injury. First game, best pass Russian, the NFL, Denver. That's a tough opener. Could have given them the dolphins, the Raiders, nope. Also, week six, seven and eight, Justin Herbert at Sam Darnold, at Denver and Bonex rivalry game, that's pretty tough. Weeks 12 through 17 is ludicrous. They face in succession on the road, at Josh Allen, at Matt Stafford, at Joe Burl. Oh, and then they get a break, Drake May, Brock Purdy at home, and then at Justin Herbert. There is no six game stretch that you face more top quarterbacks. And yes, Brock Purdy with Shanahan is a good quarterback. I don't think he's Herbert, I don't think he's Stafford, I don't think he's Josh Allen, I don't think he's Mahomes, but that to me is a really, I mean three straight roadies, Josh Allen, Stafford, Joe Burl. That's rough. They face really tough quarterbacks week after week after week, and especially tough because it's mid later in the year when injuries pile up. They already moved off McDuffie. Now you may be down your new number one corner, Pass rusher, so late in the season, everybody's dinged up, you're just trying to get guys back, and they're facing the best quarterbacks as the weather gets cold, right? They're facing the best quarterbacks in the league. I thought Kansas City schedule would be a big pass for me, Bear schedule, I thought beginning, middle, end, plays to your favor, couple tough games late, it's already been established, your culture, your momentum, I thought Chicago got a scheduling break, we were told it was gonna be the toughest schedule in the league, and we were told that about New England last year, and it was true, we were told that about San Francisco last year, it was true, I was told that about Chicago, go look at the schedule, beginning, middle, end, lot of workable, winnable games they'll be favored, sometimes heavily, J. Mac with the news. No, no, no, no. Turn on the news, this is the Herdline News. Are we gonna go back to the Chiefs because Andy Reid talked about this season opener against the Broncos, and there is some speculation that, hey, would the league really schedule Chiefs Broncos? Primetime, week one, would they really do that if Mahomes wasn't coming back? Now, I know that the games after week one are Cupcakes, the Colts with Daniel Jones, the Pathetic Dolphins, and likely Mendoza and the Raiders, but here's what Reid said about the entire process. People go, well, he's ahead of schedule, or is he ahead of schedule? I'm going, who made the schedule? I mean, everybody's different, right? And so let's just take it day by day, and nobody's spending more time than he is rehabbing. He's spent seven hours here going through it, and he hasn't missed a day, and he wants more, and all the things that are Patrick Mahomes. And so, but let's see where we're at. As we go forward, we get a little bit closer to the game. Roger Gadel probably uses his motivation for the two-quarter backs. Both of them have been banged up a little bit. Yeah. Any thoughts on Reid and the Chiefs bouncing back? I know the schedule is kind of back-loaded. I don't love that if I'm the Chiefs. No. But you get some runway to get a good start. They should be like six and four, seven and three-ish. Well, what happens is, you know, defensive players statistically get hurt more often than offensive players. So if you're going to face great quarterbacks, you'd like to face them early, right? The offense isn't quite in sync, maybe. But they face great quarterbacks on the road, back-to-back, as you're getting into the mid-later part of the season, and guys get dinged up, so you're down personnel. So, you know, I mean, I think they'll be really good. I have the Chargers winning the division, and I think Kansas City and Denver battle, Denver schedule early is just, it's like punishing, almost intentionally punishing. One thing that I haven't seen a lot of people talk about, you see that week five buy for the Chiefs, was doing some buy week analysis. You don't want the early buy, that's obvious, right? The season is grueling, you know, the injuries, but you want to be rested late buy. Colin, 11 of the last 13 Super Bowl champs had to buy week eight or later. You want the late buy. You don't want that early one. So that doesn't really help the Chiefs at all, and this is an older team on defense, and the young guys are like unproven. I think it's a good point. I don't think Kansas City loved the early buy. I know they didn't, right? So they got an early buy, that's not good for older teams, and great quarterbacks on the road, middle to late. That's a, to me, that's as tough a schedule, based on the roster you have as there is in the league. They'll be in the mix for a playoff spot, but I definitely think they're up rung below the Chargers for sure. All right, Colin, let's go to the next story, and that is Dak Prescott talking about George Pickens, who has not shown up yet for anything, but fear not, Dak says they have thrown together this off-season, so he's got that going for him. It's not like Pickens has been totally invisible, but there is still some concern that maybe he's not gonna be, he's not happy with the franchise tag, and he's gonna ruffle some feathers. I don't know what to make of this, Colin. Yeah, I mean, Pickens will be there. Dallas will be interesting. I thought Dallas played it out right. I think he's a franchise tag player. I don't think, you know, we've talked, you know, it's the old saying, some people are date, some people you marry. I think he's a short-term proposition. It's fun. Yeah, yeah, he's fun, he's a good time, but I don't- For a year or two. Yeah, but I don't, he's not a guy I'm gonna build around. CD-Lam, I'd be more prone to build around. There's a lot of receivers, JSN, the Seahawks signed him early. Highly mature player, like Larry Fitzgerald. You knew what you were getting for a decade plus. But I think there are players, Pukin, Nakuwa, some off-field stuff. I'm gonna let it play out. So I think the Cowboys play this right. Yeah, I don't know if we can get the Cowboys' schedule on the screen, but Colin, I actually like their outlook better than the Giants this year. I don't know if you've taken much of a look at it, but you know, this is, I think, a pretty soft start for them. I think they beat the Giants in Washington to start the season, and then you got a little bit of a tough gauntlet there, but look at some of these quarterbacks. No, I have a, in fact, I put it down on my schedule. Outside of the game against the Ravens and Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love at Green Bay, Sam Darnall in Seattle, and Stafford, you can argue Dallas has the better quarterback in 13 of the seven games they played. Jerry Jones, this is now, we knew before the schedule was released, but again, when I look at the schedule, their toughest games, Ravens early, Packers, you know, a month later, then they get seven or eight winnable games. Again, they get a buy before the Rams game. Again, the league is intentional. I think they look at Dallas as a team that is good and interesting, and I thought, you know, anytime you get a, they got one of the latest buys you can get, and it's right before their toughest game of the year. That's a big one. That is a favor by the NFL. Yeah, I think the arrow is pointing up on Dallas. I don't know how high, I don't know about 10 wins or anything. Final story, let's go to the NBA, and Colin Adam Silver is talking tanking, and he's actually maybe making some sense. Now, this new proposal to fix tanking, it could actually penalize teams that are tanking the most egregious landing one, two, or three. Here's Silver talking about it. What we've essentially done, and we have a proposal that we're gonna be bringing to our team owners at the end of May, and that is to create essentially a system of flat odds, so that you have no particularly incentive to be bad. There's even something we're calling draft relegation, that if you're one of the bottom three teams in the league, you'll actually have worse odds than teams that sort of are four through up until teams make the playoffs. Mark my words, the tanking issue will disappear next year because it's an egregiously bad draft. People are gonna wanna, it doesn't matter where you land. People are gonna try to, they're gonna lean into building culture. Also, many of the bad teams, Jason, are getting a good player in this draft, or two, like Chicago. So there's some cap space to the bad teams. I mean, Washington's unwatchable. Now you're like, if they get AJ Devonza, it's like, oh, they got Trey Young, Anthony Davis, AJ Devonza. You know, so next year's a bad draft, and I think, I also think bad teams in the league are willing to tank for a year to get a star, but Jason, you don't wanna make a habit of it, of being bad for your culture. So I think all those wizards, jazz, bulls, nets, kings, hawks, they're going all in. The only issue with this 3-2-1, Colin, Tyrese Halliburton goes down for the season. That's everything. He's the engine to the Pacers, and they lost Miles Turner. They were gonna be terrible. Now they did tank once they realized, oh, we can maybe steal that Clippers pick, but let's be real, if your star goes, if Cape Cunningham's lost for next season, well, they're gonna be the worst team in the league, and based on this 3-2-1, they're not gonna have better odds than like the fourth or fifth team, and I don't love that. I don't know how you rectify that, but one injury can take down some teams. Oh, absolutely. So, you know, I mean, I think they're a little too, commissioners freak out with fabric of the game issues, like tanking, because years later, you could blame a commissioner for that. Commissioners not gonna get blamed for a bad call or a controversial moment. David Stern didn't get blamed for the brawl in Detroit, but commissioners get whacked for tanking, or, you know, like for instance, in-game prop betting, you know, gambling, taking the gambling money, and people say, well, you've got, you know, you've got Tim Donagy, or you've got a baseball, but that's what commissioners get whacked for, their legacies, so the tanking thing freaks all commissioners out. I think it's gonna disappear next year. It's a bad draft. There's no incentive to draft. You wanna build a winning culture. Jay Mack with the news. Well, that's the news. And thanks for stopping by. The Hurtly News. Now, when you're a bad team, schedules always look tough. I remember when Brady was running the NFL, it felt like every year you're like, man, Patriots are getting the easiest schedule. Brady made it look easy. You know, now it did help that Buffalo was mostly bad, and Miami was, and the Jets were mostly average. That helped a lot. But the Raiders, you know, it's a tough schedule because it's the Raiders. But when I looked at the Raiders, it's almost like the NFL did not give the Raiders a prime time game, because they don't know when Fernando Mendoza's starting. I think they're gonna get a prime time game. I think they're gonna get one flexed in potentially. So what's interesting is the first game of the year for the Raiders, it's the easiest game on the schedule. It's the Dolphins. It's at home. The Dolphins are gonna start up to eight or nine rookies they drafted. They have a new coaching staff. It's a long flight. That is the winnable game on the schedule. Now, I've said before, you know, they also face the Jets in Cleveland, but those are on the road. Those are tough for games. And, you know, you start going to Cleveland week 12, late November, it could be snow, and Vegas is an indoor warm weather team. Same with the Jets. Now we're in November. You don't know what the weather is in New York. But the easiest game is Miami, which is bereft of talent, new quarterback, new coach, new system, and eight guys starting from the draft. So I would start, nobody wants to see Kirk Cousins start that game. I like Kirk Cousins. Nobody wants to see him start. I would start Fernando Mendoza for like four reasons. Number one is he played in 36 college games. I think he started in 36, I don't know. But he played in 36 games. That's a lot of games. Secondly, he went 16 and O against the Big 10, the best conference, and a gauntlet in the college football playoff. So he faced, I mean, the games against Ohio State and Miami combined, there's, you know, 15 NFL bodies. The other thing, he's a really sharp, dedicated kid. And again, it's at home. And that matters. You know, it's traveling for business, traveling for sports, it's not the same as home. So, and it's interesting at the league meetings, I remember there was a quote from Clint Kubiak who was asked, you know, who's going to start Kirk Cousins or your rookie Fernando Mendoza. And if you remember the quote he said, he said, in a perfect world, a rookie watches a mature adult and learns, is there any more mature 22 year old in the league than Fernando Mendoza? I mean, that guy is wearing turtlenecks and sweaters at a nightclub. He is like, he is like the most dedicated, mature, almost to a cringy level guy in the NFL. So he's got his priorities in order. He says the right things. I mean, he wouldn't go to the White House. It wasn't political. He's like, I don't think a rookie should go there. I've got to be with my team. I think, and I also think the Raiders GM, in my opinion, did a really good job in free agency in the draft. There's an argument, the Raiders had one of the better drafts. So, and I think the Raiders actually have talent, like Edge Crosby, left tackle Colton Miller, tight end running back. So the two times you don't want to start a rookie quarterback is number one, they haven't played a lot of college games. And number two is they're going to get pummeled. They went and got Tyler Lindobom, the best center, arguably in the football and free agency, left tackle Colton Millers above average. So to me, the Raiders are going to be a competitive team. They may finish fourth. They are not the Jets. They are not Miami. I mean, at key places, left tackle, Edge rusher, they've got real talent. They went and got veteran linebackers. So I, to me, the best free agent signing was Tyler Lindobom. I would start him. That is the most winnable game on the schedule. New quarterback, new coach, new system, Miami on the road. They're going to be starting seven rookies. They don't have a choice. They had like 13 picks. The first seven, eight picks are going to play. They're going to start. So that's where I'd go. I would start him week one. OK, I got thoughts on the New York Giants. They were my double your win total pick for the NFL season. Thoughts on that coming up next. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. [?]. Be sure to catch live editions of the herd weekdays in Newnester, 9 a.m. Pacific. A special weekend of football is coming your way with UFL's hats off to heroes celebration. Fox UFL Friday kicks it off live from Fort Hood tonight at 8 Eastern with Orlando versus Dallas. Then the action continues Sunday at 1 with Columbus and Birmingham. All part of a huge weekend of football on Fox. So every year, I pick a couple of teams. I call them my double the win total team. And we've been, I think, right five years in a row, maybe four. Last year, it was New England. Didn't think they'd get to a Super Bowl. The New York Giants are my pick. And a lot of it's John Harbaugh. I love their draft. So again, the NFL is intentional. The Chicago Bears schedule is laid out for them to stay in the game all season. They don't front load it. They don't back load it. They sprinkle the tough games. So the New York Giants to me. Listen, New York and Chicago are massive TV markets. I think combined, you have like 11 and a half potential households. Look at the Giants schedule. First six weeks, Cowboys at home, Titans at home, Cardinals at home, Saints at home. Yes, that's a lot of cupcakes. That's a, and by the way, where do they put their buy? Probably a week or two earlier than the Giants wanted, but they put it right in front of their biggest rival, the Philadelphia Eagles. At Philadelphia, toughest game in the schedules. At Philadelphia for the Giants, they get two weeks to prepare for it. So you start looking at that record for the Giants, wouldn't be shocking if they're four and two or five and one. I believe the NFL, they, I mean, again, there's too many things that happen that are aligned for all this stuff to just be, wow, what a shock. We were flipping coins in the back room, like Sean Payton outspoken, some friendly fire. I don't think the NFL loves Denver schedule is like intentionally hard early. Meanwhile, why would you do this to the Giants? Not just because of New York, but the Harbaws are football gods. The Harbaws name is gold in the NFL. They love Jim Harbaugh, they love John Harbaugh. I look at this schedule for them and I'll make a prediction that Giants will win more games in September than the Giants will have interceptions all year. That is my, so, but I do believe this to my core, the NFL, you know, they say, I'll give you an example. Again, you're gonna think this is conspiracy theory, Colin. I make fun of conspiracy guys, right? The NFL said about social media amongst their teams. They said, you do not have to approve your social media campaigns or tweets with us with the schedule release. We're gonna trust your judgment. I don't think, although it may be funny, I don't think it was necessarily smart for the Chargers social media team known as very witty to take shots at Vrabel, that's friendly fire. Protect the shield. You want controversies to go away. That is my take, that is not smart. It gets a laugh in the room. You're building a brand. I do not think that was smart by the Chargers social team. That is not protecting the shield. That's just my take. As long as I've lived, if there's any sport that has felt corporate, it's the NFL. Social media people get fired in corporations for the wrong tweet. That's just my take. Oh, you're being an old guy. NFL's run by old guys, old rich guys. I'm sorry, it is. Here's a non-schedule story that I thought was interesting. So ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, legitimate reporter, very proven, is predicting the Steelers trade, TJ Watt. Well, you know I've been on this. I think, Jason, you've been on this. I've been on this for two years. First of all, they're going to lead Pittsburgh, the NFL in defensive spending this year for the fifth year in a row. It's embarrassing. The best teams in the league, the Rams are spending their money on offense. You know, so I also think it's good for TJ Watt. He can play for a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Pittsburgh is not. He's a great kid from a great family. He's all ball. And Pittsburgh's got too many big cap hits on the defensive side. And again, they're going to leave the NFL in defensive spending. So I've preached this for years. Love your family, like your sports. Put it in perspective. I think the Warriors have gone cuckoo with Steph Curry. I really like Steph Curry, but if you can't play with Steph, you can't be a warrior. It's a non-viable team now. So what was, I will say this off season, I did think the Steelers made a gradual move to embracing offense. They hired Mike McCarthy, offensive coach. They're first two draft picks, offensive tackle wide receiver. They went and got Michael Pittman. You know, like they're slow, we go doubtful, I thought was a nice pickup. So they're slowly moving in the offensive direction. Keep going, don't stop, keep moving. You can like a player in TJ Watt, but defensive ends, a lot of injuries, now past his prime, or at least moving in that direction. You know, listen, Steelers, you're moving toward high speed internet. I don't expect AI this year. You are moving in the direction of high speed internet. We'll give you credit for that. When you see software update on your phone, you know, you can update. I know you've been pushing ignore for the last 10 years, software update time. To me, it's not a knock on TJ Watt. Every good company I've ever worked at is seeing problems before they develop or persist. Like Pittsburgh, this TJ Watt thing, we were talking about a couple of years ago. He had much more value two years ago than now. It's like Yonis and Milwaukee, much more value two years ago, three years ago than now. But Pittsburgh is, I mean, I honestly think Pittsburgh is as backwards as any, I'm not saying bad organization, much better organization than a Jets or Cleveland, Arizona, but they're backwards. Like they just can't come to grips with what is happening in the league. And I said this the other day, I don't know what's gonna happen with their quarterbacks, but if you told me in five years, there was a huge brand in sports that was kind of a mess, I would say Pittsburgh, like the league has changed. Gotta spend money on offense. I mean, even the Pittman and the DK Metcalf hires, there is, I mean, they're just, it's so old school. There's no reason to spend huge money on arguably declining receivers. Like the Seahawks have the best GM in the league, they moved off DK Metcalf. What did the Steelers do? Overpay for DK Metcalf, who's regressing. So they're inching toward getting some understanding of offense, but they're still clunky. They're still not good at it. That's why Aaron Rogers, I mean, they basically haven't shown any urgency at quarterback. They treat quarterback like a guard or an off-ball linebacker. We'll get to the quarterback thing. It's like brutal, but McCarthy, first two picks, off Rico Dowdle, it's like, they're kind of getting there. Just don't push ignore on the phone, you know. Update your software, push, yes. Jason. Colin, let me ask you, the timing of this leak on TJ Wad is interesting. So Aaron Rogers was in town over the weekend. He didn't even meet with the team. And now a few days later, we get, oh yeah, they're gonna trade TJ Wad. Do you think it's over with Rogers? Hey, we're not bringing him back. Let's start the rebuild, let's move on from Wad. That timing just struck me listening to that. I'm like, huh, I mean, why now? Like most of the off-season is done. Why would you, why would this come out now? Well, you know how there's two stories in sports, the one that gets out to the public and the truth. You know, there's been this sort of, oh, Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rogers, Kumbaya. They didn't get along. They hated each other. And the other thing is they're just not the same guy. One guy looks like a Milwaukee cop and the other guy's a hipster, going on darkness retreats and doing ayahuasca. Like there's two totally different people. It's not like they, it's not like two buddies who fight over a girlfriend or something that really like each other, but something came between. That's not what this is. Like McCarthy is old school, run my plays, and Aaron uses, you know, his leverage is, I'm gonna make you wait for me. Let's stop this. Like they get along great. I was just talking to somebody in our business the other day about, you know, this idea that certain people get along and they used to work together. That's just what the public's fed. Okay, McCarthy and Aaron Rogers, when they were together. I mean, I had two people that were in the Packers huddle on offense and they're like, no, Aaron would roll his eyes at the calls, dog cuss him. Aaron's not into Mike McCarthy. It's not happening. I think it's over. Hey, one other thing, can we call up the giant schedule real quick? Cause you, I did not see this last night. So you like Giants Titans. I think it's week three. That's a Brian Debo revenge game. Okay. And in week one, the Titans play my jets a Robert Sala revenge game. Okay, so the Titans play New York, both New York teams in the first three weeks. That to me is fascinating. And I'm just telling you my off season team, Tennessee Titans, I was a year early. I wasn't wrong. I was just early. I would keep an eye on the Titans. I like, I liked their draft. I like what they did in free agency. And I love Sala and Debo. They are going to make some noise in the eight. Maybe they're this year's Colts. Remember the Colts were like seven and one or something crazy. I, we, we, we won't talk much about the Colts, but I will, I will remind people if you have, if you have the Colts on your schedule, do not forget their first seven, eight weeks last year. They went to LA and totally outplayed the Rams. But by the way, no Daniel Jones coming off in Achilles. They will start 0 and 5. And the Jets have their first round pick. Let's go Archmating, Archmating to the Jets. courtesy of the Colts. I'm fired up, baby. Yeah. That's the standard to be fired up about.