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Here's what's on tap tonight. Rally on. Mark is higher for a second straight day than Nasdaq, now up over 4% just this week, but with plenty uncertainty around the worst alluming. Should you believe the bounce? And is there a spring thaw coming for the housing market? Why the selling season is shaping up to be a rough one this year and whether buyers should expect any relief anytime soon. Plus, Nike swooshes to 12-year lows. Pointe shares rough U.S. debut and Lily levitates. Shares surging as the company's obesity pill gets approval. But how does it stack up against the competition? We will lay out the landscape for weight loss. I'm Melissa Lee, come to your live from the studio at the Nasdaq on The Dust Tonight. Carter Braxton Worth, Karen Feiderman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami. We start off with stocks keeping yesterday's momentum going into the new quarter, kicking off April with gains across the board. But markets did close off their best levels of the session and even with yesterday's rip hire, major indices are just back to where they were last week. One notable lagger today, energy which dropped almost 4% as WTI crude slid below $100 a barrel. All this is investors await clarity. Hope for clarity, I should say, on the war in the Middle East. President Trump is set to deliver an update on the conflict tonight. Our Aiman Javuz is in Washington with the very latest. Aiman. Hey there, Melissa. What we know at this hour is that Iranian President Massoud Pazeskin has released an open letter to the American people on social media ahead of President Trump's address to the nation tonight. In it, the Iranian leader says, Iran has never in its modern history chosen the path of aggression and never initiated a war. And he says that portraying Iran as a threat is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful who want to sustain the arms industry and control strategic markets. Meanwhile, in his speech tonight, a White House officials tells CNBC, the president will give an operational update on the progress of Operation Epic Fury, which they say is meeting or exceeding all of its benchmarks. The official also said the president will reiterate that two or three week timetable for concluding the operation. We heard him talking about that yesterday. We're expecting to hear more of that language tonight, Melissa, and expect a relatively tight speech. This is not a State of the Union. This is a national address to the nation and negotiating that kind of time with the TV networks is always tricky, so they have to keep it tight. So we expect, you know, this is not going to go anywhere near an hour time. Hours time. Amen. Thanks. Amen. Javars in Washington. So, Guy, would you be an April fool to sell this? That's exactly what it says in the counter, and I think it's pretty funny. So she went to you, Guy, I guess. Well, of course she did. To sell the rally. I think what's happening here, by the way, hello, Melissa. That's the great Michael Affigone wrote that. Well done by him. So I think what's happening, people have a pretty long memories, and it was April of last year when the market sold off on the tariff concerns, and a week or so later, we'd gotten all back and we were off to the races. And I think there's maybe the thought out there that I don't want to make the same mistake twice. Last year I made a mistake of trying to fade it. I'm not going to do it now. I think the circumstances now are entirely different. Obviously, last year it was around rhetoric that could be backed off. This year it's around something else. On top of which, the problems that existed prior are still out there. So to answer your question specifically, yeah, with a 24 and a half VIX, I think you got to fade this last 200 point move in the S&P. Isn't crude kind of the tell here. It's still in and around $100. That's WTI. And the S&P was oversold. Carter's going to tell us all about some of the internals of the equity markets here. I think a lot of folks will say you got to go back to some of the things that was ailing the market, the inability for the S&P 500 to make a breakout above $7,000 and establish a new range. We had a guest on last night who's really optimistic about S&P 500 earnings. He said the way in which we came in above expectations in 25, he's actually ratcheted up. Didn't he say that? He's ratcheted up his EPS expectations. So you could say with some of the valuation turns with the market coming off and expectations for S&P 500 earnings going higher than maybe there is a little bit more valuation support than some would have said about a month ago or so when the war started. So I look at this and I say, we've been in this sort of scenario where crude up equities down. So yesterday we saw crude up equities up meaningfully. So let's see what happens tonight because I think if there's no real new news, I suspect that you'll see crude oil stay bid in and around $100. And then as far as investors are concerned, you got away how much clarity we're going to get about this, how much it starts to weigh on U.S. consumers, how much it starts to weigh on companies, their exposure overseas, that sort of thing. And what are the recession odds? Maybe not as much here, but overseas and how you start imputing that into S&P 500. We've been trying WTI, but Brent is still at $100 and barely moved into today's session. So not confirming what we saw in stocks. And I think the key tonight is whether or not the president is going to clarify the status of the Strait of Hormuz and how important it is to declaring the end to the Iran war. Because Iran makes statements like we're never going to open this straight up to enemy. I mean, the rhetoric seems to be going just past each other in terms of what is going on with the Strait and the intention there. Yes, which makes me think if they're going to come to some agreements through back channels and hopefully there is some of that going on. It's sort of interesting. I mean, I like the balance that's nice, I'm long, so that's helpful. But I don't know that anything has really changed at all. And it's sort of interesting to me that we now have this sort of shortened attention span where the president needs to feel like this, he needs to at least convey. This will be wrapped up in two or three weeks. That's the time frame that we look at now. And that's a really difficult time frame, I think, to do some very difficult maneuvers. So I don't know. I mean, I hope that would be great. That would be great if that ended up being the case. What to do about the market? I don't know. I feel like you can't be all in long and you can't be all in short. I am always long, so I hedge a little, but I'm going to get hurt if things end up being more protracted, which they very well may. And if not, I hope that that's not the case. I hope we have a much quicker outcome, but I'm not betting that way. I mean, you know, there's a case being made and it's being made at the highest levels with the most astute research firms that, one, it's over. We've had our bear and we know internally that's the case. One out of three stocks is more than 40% below the respective 52-week high. That's well past the 20 so-called measure. And we also know that the peak in the market was two months ago, but more than half stocks had their own peaks six months ago. Microsoft, for instance. So that it's been happening for us. So it's not because we bombed Iran. We want to say, no, of course it is. But what about the whole AI thing? That was before that. What about the fact that we've got negative payrolls? What about the fact that there's a sort of problems in every area? And so is it analogous to the swoon associated with tariffs? I would say no. That was really self-inflicted and it was quickly reversed. This seems more structural, more issues, and we've come from a higher level, higher valuation. And it all adds up to my thinking that if you have to choose a side, I'm in the side that it has more downside. All right. I mean, this goes back to the whole thing that we were talking about before, even before the war. There are a lot of things that you might not like about the markets. You can look at a laundry list of things, whether it be AI or private credit, valuations. And the only reason we have not talked about them is that it's been transpiring over the last five weeks, but they have not gone away. In some cases, I mean, listen, I understand that memory stocks have rallied over the last couple of days. I get it. But if you want sort of an indication as to what can go wrong, just look at the move in micron. It's been a strike run since their earnings release a week and a half or so ago. So that's sort of the other side of this thing. And all those concerns around private credit and delinquency rates and some credit issues out there, an unemployment rate that I think it's going to take higher inflation is still problematic, a new Fed share coming in within the next couple of months, those are all still out there that have not been reconciled in any way, shape, or form. Yeah. It's one thing to compare this to a year ago. And I think we were all sitting on that desk that day when the tariffs were rolled out. And I just remember, oh my God, people were aghast. We could not believe, and it's not too frequently, you'd see stocks move aggressively in response to earnings or other news. We saw the S&B futures, they just came off hard and they kept on coming off hard for like, what is it, a week and a half or something? We were down 20-some percent. The immediate pricing in of recession, I mean, it was staggering. And generally, I think throughout our careers, and not that we're rooting for wars, but oftentimes when you see bomb dropping, that's when the market kind of bottoms. And I think what's different about what's going on here is that this is likely all these deadlines. We learned this from the tariffs. They weren't great, but they kept on kicking the can down the road. And there was really no systemic risk, I think, to the economy and thus the markets. But right now, when you keep setting these deadlines and you keep pushing it out, that's actually more uncertainty. And the damage that can be done in the interim is really a problem. And it's not just about oil. It's not just about LNG. It's about some of the countries that rely on 20 percent of the energy that goes through her moods. It's what they are doing there. And it's like, you always use this expression like, what is it, purchases? What do you say? There's blood on the surface. No, no, you did the thing about delayed versus denied. And I think that the denied sort of stuff is going to be the thing that weighs on the global economy. And again, I'm not an economist, but it just seems like the longer this straight is closed, the more likely we are to see weakness globally. That's also shocking, I think, about what we've seen in the market so far, is that we saw such the quick repricing of the markets based on the fear of a recession brought on by tariffs. But with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we did not have that same reaction by far. It's very surprising to me. You know, we often talk about the VIX. We talk about the VIX all the time. I have been really surprised that we have not seen a VIX in when you look at some of the real shocks that we've had. So whether it was the pandemic. You know, when that was, I guess, the biggest one in the last, I don't know, how many years, but we've had a few where things have traded much high. The VIX has traded 40s, 50s, even as much as the 80s in the 80s. It's flirted with 30 a little bit, gotten a little bit over to me. I still think there's more to come. And Karen actually has someone on the buy side. What do you make of the fact that in the past we have had, if you were to do an AI search for the most incredible Volcker crushes of the past 40, 50 years, two of them have occurred. Three of them occurred in the last five years. COVID, right? A crush involved. Silver and oil. And has risk management gotten so much better? Where are the blobs? They used to be, oh, that hedge fund is gone. They're done. Oh, they got killed. Is it gotten better, do you think, as an industry? Or is this just yet to happen? I just think it by the dip is so ingrained now that there's a whole generation of investors that are just, you know, every time there's anything, it's a chance to buy. Yeah. That's my explanation for it. I don't know. If you have a different one, I would know. No, I don't know because it's quite remarkable that with that kind of uneven here with oil, the up and then the crack. Where was the, oh, they blew up last night. You just have it all the time. Right. And there are no blobs. So has risk management gotten better or something? Maybe. Maybe more than one thing. Well, maybe it's all coming. Or maybe it's all coming. Would you say the sell-off from the recent highs has been pretty orderly? Oh, not the market has. Yeah. So I think people like the Surgeon Silver and the Surgeon Oil, the collapse during COVID, the futures have never been limit down except on election night 2016. There weren't blobs. I thought Dan was opining. I'm just going to say it fell orderly. I think people were kind of hedged up, you know, and it's kind of weird. And to your point about all the damage that had been done under the surface and therefore maybe on the industry level, it wasn't that, I don't know. No, I think, I'm going to keep looking at it. Yeah. Meantime. The weather is getting a bit warmer, making way for a spring housing season. But buyers and sellers may be facing a rough market as mortgage rates rise to their highest level since August and mortgage demand dries up. Diana Olax got the details on this. Hey, Diana. Hey, Melissa. Yeah, mortgage rates did move a little bit lower to start this week as markets react to the most recent rhetoric on the Iran War. But last week, the average rate on the 30-year fix rose to the highest level since August. And that tanked total applications down 10% for the week. Refis were, of course, hit the hardest down 17% for the week. They were 33% higher than the same week a year ago. But earlier this year, when rates were lower, refinance demand was more than twice what it was a year ago. Now, applications for a mortgage to buy a home dropped 3% for the week. And they were just 1% higher than the same week one year ago. That 1% is significant. Why? Spring was forecast to be much better than last year and is clearly not shaping up that way. Just ask the CEO of Restoration Hardware, which missed quarterly earnings estimates in a big way on the analysts call today. Gary Friedman said, We're compounding clutter from tariffs, global discord as a result of war, and the most dire housing market in decades. Dyer, he said. Now, real estate agents, I've been talking to for our next quarterly housing market survey, which is out next week. Say both buyers and sellers are suddenly pulling out of the market. Melissa. I have noticed a lot of listings that have just gone off the market recently, Diana. So it's interesting to hear that that is confirmed. It's a trend. It is. Yeah, thank you. So Diana said it was supposed to be much better and here we are. And here we are. So I think a lot of people would be surprised. Pope at DHI chart, go back five years. This stock made its all-time high, not last week, not last month. In the fall of 2024, think about that for a second. Think about the markets done and all the enthusiasm around home builders. There's a huge double top in tall brothers. Pultee homes has been under pressure. I think you got to avoid these names as much as people want to say it's about rates coming down. And I get it. That would be helpful. It's about the labor market and what's going on on the ground. And you heard Diana just now, the comments out of restoration hardware. I mean, that's a cautionary tale, Melms. Yeah, restoration hardware or. Restor, I mean, all, I mean, any of it. You know, I think, let's see, this might be somewhat of a knee-jerk reaction to, okay, things have heated up in the last few weeks, the Middle East. Let's just see what happens and then maybe we'll, we'll be back out there. We'll list again or we'll look again. But now rates have moved. Right. That, that is the most problematic thing that you can't get around. Yeah. Yeah, just not working, right? I mean, at some point you make a wager and make a bet, make a judgment. And at some point you have to either add to it or abandon it. And they're not working. Homebuilders, I would say, get away. Coming up, Nike share is getting tripped up after last night's earnings. The disappointing results out of the shoe giant and whether there is any reason to be bullish now, plus building up or for blast off, SpaceX getting ready for what could be a record-setting IPO. The valuation it's targeting and how investors can get in on the action. That's right ahead. Don't go anywhere. Fast money is back in two. This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee right here on CNBC. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. It's a short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Welcome back to Fast Money. Nike is thinking over 15% as weak guidance cast out on the sportswear giant's turnaround. The company warning of declining sales for the rest of the year due to weakness in China where revenues are expected to drop 20%. This quarter alone shares now trading at their lowest level in almost 12 years. Our more Guggenheim senior managing director, Simeon Siegel joins us on the Fast Line. He's got a buy rating and a $74 price target on Nike. Simeon, great to have you with us. Good to be back. I like that pause on the price target comment. They're like caught you guys' prize there. Well, I talked to Manels yesterday. You had a $120 price target on the stock. But $74 does seem much higher considering how the stock is traveled today. What are you seeing in terms of the progress that it's making? Because Elliot Hale himself said the progress is much slower. But what are the sort of the one or two things that you're seeing that really make you hold on to that buy rating? Make you hold on specifically to the $74 price target? Because so many of your brethren on the street have lowered that today. Yeah, well, they're a lot smarter than I am. So we can start from there. But so listen, you and I talked about this a lot more. I think there's a big distinction we need to make between what happened versus what they guided. And so you even started, I think you're exactly right. Their guidance is uninspiring. Their guidance is scary. And I think people are just sitting here with this shame on me if you fool me so many times and you're just losing patience. I think the amount of times today talking to investors that I heard were just losing patience, life's too short, we're playing whack-a-mole, that's become the theme because to your point, all of a sudden we're talking about China being down 20%. I think what's interesting about that is this quarter, China was actually a lot better than people thought it was going to be. And that was this huge fear. Last quarter, you and I would have talked about being really worried that China is this kind of like endless black hole. And the reality is they put up still declines, but meaningfully less bad declines in China. And they put up really good margins. And what's interesting there is that echoes the fact that a year ago when you and I talked about Nike, there was no chance North America revenues were going to grow. And yet they're growing and they're growing nicely. And so I think what the narrative of the guidance is, oh my God, it's going to keep getting worse. The reality of what they've done is, tariff notwithstanding, these results this quarter were actually signs of moving in the right direction. Obviously, the stock doesn't show it because of that guidance. And that's important. And I think it makes a lot of sense. But if what we are seeing is that Elliot did turn around North America. And now we're working through this China conversation. We're going to have to deal with EMEA. But he's putting these processes in place. That's where I think it could get interesting. It's Karen. Thanks for being on. I understand why they would maybe want to give guidance that's somewhat conservative, let's say. I would think everyone should. But this quarter, though, it was the quarter that ended February 28th. So none of this other stuff had happened yet. And China as well. They're really affected. Price of oil. Price of oil. So I'm wondering, 77, how do you get there? What's the multiple that you use and the EPS you use to get there? Yeah, absolutely. And so just to be fair, 77 went to 74. So give me those extra three bucks if we're going to go there. But now I'm just kidding. Take 70. I'll give you 70. There you go. We're playing with dollars here. So it's 30 times the number that we're looking at. If I would argue or I would hope, and maybe that's the point of kind of what's asking about holding. So maybe it's the hope here that as we look at earnings power, I would hope that my number is too low. And so I think this idea of if China is conservative as they normally do, they normally guide low and then be, maybe there's a conversation there to be had. If you're not getting credit for guiding low and blowing it out of the water, maybe don't guide as low. And that's a separate conversation. But right now on my published numbers that I look at, I'm looking at 30 times in line with historical. And you should push back on me and say, yeah, but they're not growing like they used to grow historically. And I think that's very fair. And then what I would look at and say, okay, do I believe they're under earning as they now reembrace wholesale? Karen, you and I talked about a couple of years ago this, as they went full force into D to C, wholesale is the higher margin business for them. And that's very hard for us to really think about because you think if there's a middle person, they're making money. And that was the whole pitch of going direct to consumer was eliminate the middle person, cut out the retailer in between, make their money. And what we have learned is you don't cut out the middle person, you become the middle person, and the middle person doesn't make very much money. And so I think this notion of wholesale does give them distribution, but it also actually gives them the ability to regain that margin. If we can get to double digit margin, my 30 multiple looks lower because my earnings look higher. And so I very much understand this is not linear and this is not happening tomorrow. But I think as we look through that, what we are seeing is we're watching demand creation go up, we're watching overhead go down. And that's what Nike used to win with. They used to win because they had great product and they had marketing budgets that no one could compete with. When they pivoted to direct and had to spend a lot of money on operating overhead because direct costs money, they had to pull back on demand creation. They gave up not only a product, but also on that marketing story. I think that's where as we look forward and again looking into next year where we could start seeing this as being a lower number than it actually turns out to be. But that's why I was looking at the third quarter. What did they actually just do versus where's the guidance? Because the stock deserves to be where it is today based on that guidance. There's no questions asked about that. The question is whether the guidance proves conservative. All right, here's a curveball for you, Simeon. I think in 2024 Bill Ackman bought a quarter of a billion dollars worth of stock. That's as close to an activist I think as we've seen. I think he sold it out as well. I don't know what Phil Knight owns and controls. He can't be happy about this. Is this ripe in your opinion for an activist investor to step in? So funny. I was having this conversation about three other companies under my coverage literally today because as you look at a lot of these retailers, there's a lot of things that people would look at and you and I would say, you know, it looks so obvious what we should change. It looks so obvious what to do. I don't know that I would say that for Nike. Because I hear you like it makes sense. We're looking at the disappointing share price. But in terms of what you and I, let's say, would do differently, what would we do? We'd want to focus on product. We want to focus on making sure we're speaking to the customer. We'd again return. I would argue to be willing and able to spend on marketing to create that moat that no one else could fight against. But first and foremost, what we would do is recognize that we gave up so much share to these emerging competitors by walking away from retail partners, from Dick Sporting, from Foot Locker, from all of the wholesale partners. And we'd re-embrace that. And that's the first thing Elliot did. And so I think when you think about a business that does 45 to 50 billion dollars of footwear and apparel revenues, which is unheard of. There's no one who comes close to that. Like when Nike is losing, they are still winning. They start from zero every year and get to 45 plus billion dollars of revenue. I think to move that shift does take a lot of time. And that's why I think it feels like it's not the story. This isn't what they're saying. But it feels to me like what they're doing is they're triaging. Let's fix North America, then let's fix China. Now let's fix India and then we'll get to Congress. Like it feels like he's working his way down the road. But all we're seeing is this game of blackmail. Simian, great to speak with you. Thank you. Good to be back. Simian Siegel of Guggenheim. All right. So are you patient with this? No. I sold it today. A couple of reasons. One, this was very, very disappointing. Two, I just, you know, you gain some objectivity from not owning it. And three, I'm going to take a tax loss. So I have in my calendar 31 days, whatever it is May 4th is the first trading day. I could buy it back. I'll relook at it then. Maybe I'll feel differently. But in the meantime, it's sort of a maximum frustration. Yeah. Along with a lot of other people out there. And loss. Yeah. So that may be the bottom just to mark it. So we crossed well below 50. Yeah. I mean, this is a textbook. You have a breakout or a breakdown when you're sitting at 52. Kaiser lows. This is the opposite of a breakout. It's broken down today on heavy volume on news with a gap. It's usually, I mean, that's good technique. It's very hard to, nothing wrong with being wrong. It's staying wrong. Yeah. We all have to at some point say, this is just not right. I'm in the wrong direction. Go the other way. Selling something that's down, taking the loss. It's the way to do it. There is no technique known to say it's cheap. It's gone down so much I should buy it. And speaking of, and it's not about one man or one woman, the high on the street, there's a price target of 120. Yeah. The low on the street, there's 23. How could one man or woman think the stock you could sell? You study the sneakers, study consumer trans, I suppose, with income better than he is worse than Puma. And one person can say it's worth 120 and one can say it's worth 23. What the what? It's absurd. Yeah. I agree. You know, Simeon said they're going to get to Converse last. They're going to fix that last guy. What sort of innovation was it in the 50s when they introduced the Converse All-Star that you started wearing? No, it was Chuck Taylor's. That was groundbreaking sneaker. The canvas Chuckie T's we used to call them. Okay, just checking. I'll add something if you'd like, Melissa. I'm usually the one with the Tom Fulery. But here's the good news, I think, if there is. Traded about eight times normal volume today, which we haven't seen Nike trade over 100 million shares in quite some time. That to me speaks to at least the beginnings of capitulation. So maybe the end is somewhat near here in Nike. There's a lot more fast money to come. Here's what's coming up next. What made you confident that you could do something that hadn't been done before? I have no fear of failure. Trailblazing women changing the game. One of my favorite pieces of advice, think about what your boss's boss needs. Leadership can look in many, many different forms. It really does come down to just trusting yourself. Life is short and you just got to think big to accomplish big things. Julia Boorstin hosts CNBC Changemakers and Power Players. New episodes every Tuesday wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to Fast Money, the countdown for NASA's Artemis II mission has begun. It's set to launch from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida in just about an hour, carrying four astronauts on the trip around the moon. It would be the first time astronauts have returned to the vicinity of the moon in over 50 years. Meantime, Elon Musk's SpaceX, a partner to the Artemis missions, confidentially filed for an IPO today, sources telling CNBC, the rocket company is eyeing a potential valuation of over $1.75 trillion. This is according to Bloomberg, which would make it the sixth largest company in the country bigger even than Tesla. It could be seeking to raise about $75 billion of that $1.75 trillion valuation. So it's a small slice of what it is actually valued. What do you make of it? I wonder what it means for Tesla actually, because if you were offering me a share of Tesla right here, like $1.5 trillion or a share of SpaceX at like 1.75 or something, I'd take SpaceX every day of the week. And I wonder what sort of focus that Elon might place on SpaceX. You just mentioned Artemis. They are going to be a huge commercial partner of everything that NASA is doing. Starlink is a monster. If you think about XAI, I have no idea what's going on there, but they put what, a $250 billion valuation or something? Anthropic is probably $400. I'm sure if you want to give the little pixie dust for the space stuff or anything like that, you probably could find your way to a trillion and a half dollars. Tesla made its all-time high. I think in December it's gone from basically 500 down to the current levels now. So maybe in some weird way this move in Tesla to the downside, which we haven't talked about now in weeks, is maybe some precursor to this IPO. And maybe you buy Tesla on the actual event. Maybe that's the setup here to be along Tesla on the back of the SpaceX IPO. I think that Tesla has been the ATM for this as opposed to other MagSemi stocks. I don't think that's unreasonable. I think that's unreasonable. So it's interesting how big the private deals are now. And I love that this was confidentially filed. Except that they whispered to Bloomberg. Except every single person knows. So this is, okay, 75 billion is actually not that much when you put it in the context of what open AI just raised at $120 billion. And you had anthropic raised, de-sprays, but nowhere near that. I think it could be interesting. I don't know. If you had the same question, would you rather, I'd rather SpaceX than Tesla at this value, if that is the valuation, one and a quarter. Yeah. How does that Tesla chart look to you? All right. Pair of twos for me. Wait a second. Will we play the would you rather game? No, but Karen is a lot of play. I understand this. You didn't even flinch. I give her dispensation. Coming up stock surging again as investor optimism for an end to the Iran war continues to grow. But our next guest says the market rally may have already gotten ahead of itself while he is calling the bounce premature and what he is doing instead. Fast Money is back in two. Welcome back to Fast Money stocks continuing their bounce to start the new month and quarter. The Dow jumping more than 200 points. The S&PF nearly three quarters of a percent of the Nasdaq climbing more than a percent. Crypto asset manager CoinShares making its U.S. debut on the Nasdaq today via SPAC shares dropping nearly 22% in its first day. As Bitcoin and the broader crypto trade continue to struggle, Bitcoin trading below $70,000. Raymond James upgrading Disney to an outperform rating. Analysts there establishing a price target of $115 saying they believe the stock remains historically cheap. Take a look at Microsoft down to 10th percent. The only member of the Mag7 in the red today. The stock is down 23% already this year. We don't want to pick on Microsoft, but really the stock performers has been terrible of late on a day when the markets were up, you know, in the Nasdaq in particular for it to be down. Sort of a bounce. I mean, it's had a couple bounces, but the bounces have been short lived. I mean, this is another stock that made its all time high in the fall of last year. I mean, look at what the tape has done over just the last couple days of Microsoft. You think it's a relief rally, you're not. So again, I understand it's part of software that is not loved right now, but Microsoft might be one of the five most important companies in the world and it's not traded well now for quite some time. And a direct overlay to Oracle. I mean, two very prominent names that cannot catch your bounce. And then the two other very prominent names that were sort of saying something all along semis up, up, up, but if I go and invite a dead flat six months. These are issues. All right. Our next guest suggests we are in the midst of a premature market rally. Michael Contopolis is head of multi-asset macro investing at Janice Henderson Investors. Right. Michael, welcome. Thank you. Congratulations. Come on. All right. Congratulations. Congratulations. Congratulations. Janice Henderson. So congratulations. Nice new title too. Thank you. Why is this rally premature? Well, I think, listen, there's a ton of uncertainty still out there. Most importantly around inflation with oil prices being higher. I think what we saw is in April of last year, you really had a bottoming of core PCE. And, you know, since then inflation has been trending higher. The economy was quite strong going into this war. You saw ISM prices paid today was through the roof. And oil prices are certainly not helping. And so I think inflation is going to be elevated for some time. Investors aren't giving that enough due. Rates probably need to go higher and that should suck out some liquidity from the market. Walk us through why you think inflation will stick because I feel like that is the out-of-consensus view and that most people think that this is a shock and that when the war is over, things will go back to normal and inflation levels will return to what they were prior. So why do you have that view? Well, I do think that's a possibility. But even if you went, oil went back down to the 60s or 70s, you're still going to be well above 2% on inflation. And you were going into the war. And I think people forget that. You know, we didn't think the Fed was going to cut going into March. We think if things go back to the way they were, they're still not going to cut. The economy is quite strong. Earnings growth is pretty strong. Inflation doesn't seem to be trending towards 2%. Certainly not the inflation the Fed cares about. And so there's a chance that oil does go back down. You see a headline come down a little bit from, you know, the 4% estimates or whatever some of the economists out there saying today. But it's hard to envision where you get to 2% without a real growth shock. So if, let's say, Warsh becomes the new chair and there's some resolution with what's happening in the Middle East, do you think it would only be labor that would get the Fed to cut or just Warsh cut no matter what? Well, I think there's what should happen and what will happen. I think if Warsh cuts in labor doesn't weaken materially, that's going to be a mistake. And I think the markets are going to punish the Fed pretty meaningfully in that case. And the Bod and vigilantes are going to come out and you're going to see much higher rates. You saw that last, well, two years ago in 2024 when the Fed cut 50, rates went higher. You saw it really since they've cut this go around, rates have gone generally higher. And I think if they were to do it again, given current growth levels and inflation, rates are going higher. So I do think labor is most likely going to be the fulcrum that determines whether or not the Fed cuts. But obviously if there's, you know, if there's some intervention from the administration, then you could have a mistake. What do much higher rates look like? Four and a half, four and three, is it 5% in a 10-year? Yeah, I think it depends on really two things. One of, if the Fed cuts in the context of, you know, three and a half, 4% inflation, I think you can go well north of 5%. If you kind of go back to where we were pre-war and you're just hovering around 3%, 3.2%, something in that neighborhood, you know, four and a half, four and three quarters, I think that's probably where you could settle out. So it's higher from here, I think on the rates side, it's just a matter of to what degree. So with this backdrop, you say raise cash? Yeah, so we're raising cash. Sounds like a bunker trade, Michael. What's that? That sounds like a bunker trade. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a bunker trade. For me, a bunker trade would be shifting our entire portfolio to staples, healthcare, utilities, really defensive positioning. We actually maintained a, I wouldn't necessarily say a pro-cyclical stance, but we stayed, you know, overweight emerging markets, overweight international, overweight industrials and energy and materials in the U.S. on an equity-only basis. But in our balanced portfolio, we did raise cash to account for uncertainty. And if the world goes back to where it was, those international plays, emerging markets, industrials, the broadening that we saw going into March, we'll carry our portfolio forward. But if obviously the bottom falls out and you have a big growth shock, we'll be happy we had some cash, too. Michael, great to see you. Thank you. Likewise. Michael Contopolis of Janice Henderson. Coming up, which one's the easiest pill to swallow, the pros and cons of farmers' oral obesity drugs after the long-awaited approval of Lili's latest offering? What it means for the biggest players in the space when Fast Money returns? Welcome back to Fast Money. Lili rising almost 4 percent after the FDA greenlit its weight loss pill, Fondayo. It is the second GLP-1 pill to hit the market following Novonordus launch of oral wagovia earlier this year. For more on how the drugs stack up to one another, let's get to Angelica Peebles. Angelica. Hey, Melissa. Well, Lili will launch Fondayo just three months behind Novos-Wagovia pill. And Fondayo isn't as effective. It delivered about 12 percent weight loss at the highest dose on average in a phase three trial. And in a separate trial, the Wagovia pill showed around 17 percent weight loss. Now, both of those are less than Lili's weekly shot Zephound, which has consistently produced more than 20 percent of weight loss in studies. And both of those pills will cost about the same for people paying out of pocket. They'll both start at about $149. And the highest dose of Lili's pill is $50 more a month in Novos. And where Lili thinks that it has the edge is convenience and accessibility. Fondayo can be taken at any time of day and at the same time as other medicines, whereas Novos pill needs to be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach. That's one thing that doctors say could be an inconvenience. And Lili can make more of its pill since it's a small molecule. And Lili says that it'll be able to supply more than 40 markets where it's expecting approval over the next year. And international sales are expected to play a major role in Fondayo reaching the $15 billion that analysts expect by 2030. Now, back in the U.S., I do want to talk about another company we're watching. That's Kylera Therapeutics. They're seeking to go public. And this is a company that's backed by well-known biotech investors like Bain and Atlas. And they built this company by licensing experimental obesity drugs from China's Hung Ray. So that's one to keep an eye on, Mel. And then there's structured therapeutics, of course. Angelica, thank you. Angelica Peebles. So there could potentially be other competitors that we don't... We're not, you know, in the market soon between GPCR and perhaps Kyler... Kyleras is, by the way, still experimental. With each passing day, you know in the board rooms is saying we've got to get in the game. How do we get in the game? We have to make an acquisition. What's the acquisition? Structure therapeutics is one. Viking is another one we've talked about. They have an oral. So these... And we rarely say things like that, but I think it's almost a foregone conclusion that those two names at some point have got acquired this year. Yeah. Yes. It's the gene... The gene might be dang. Yes. Right. No, I agree with everything Guy's saying. That's why I own it. It's just looking back up one second, though. It's interesting to me that differential in weight loss between those two drugs. And yet the expectation is really that Lilie's drug is going to do a lot better. She shouldn't, but I don't know. Novoa, you know, that's another N in my bedang, NG, which now stands for no good. But I think structure therapeutics, $2 billion market cap right now. Now you are going to have to eat some additional expenses as they can hopefully get to a place where they have a drug to sell. But it just seems like this is an enormous opportunity that is not a lot of money for a big cap farmer, even a medium cap farmer. Like $6 billion or something. I would think you just threw that out there of, you know, that wouldn't be a ton. And the whole enterprise value now is $2 billion. I mean, the real question for Lilie, of course, is that you could not have a bigger run-up over the past 10 years. And then yet it's relative performance to the market peaked 18 months ago. It is still below where it was in the autumn of 2024. So is it all priced in or is much of it priced in? And is this sideways grinding for the better part of two years reflecting that? That's my hunch. A pair of twos for me. A pair of twos on Lilie. Coming up, there are more than great coats. Why the Charmaster says shares of specialty retailer Burlington are heading higher from here. And here's a sneak peek at the Kramer Cam. Jim is chatting exclusively with the CEO of Research and Analytics firm. Semi-analysis, catch the full interview. Top of the hour on Mad Money. More fast money in two. Welcome back to Fast Money. Shares of specialty retailer Burlington up 14.5% this year. And the Charmaster says the stock has more room to run. So, Carter Braxton-Worth, what do you see? Let's get right to it. So three charts are all identical. This one has no lines, no drawings, no judgments. But the first thing that jumps out surely is relative performance. Stock market's down 10%. A lot of retailers from Gap to others struggling. Macy's in this adder near 52-week highs, toying with a breakout. Second of three charts, one way to draw the lines. That's the perspective breakout. I've got a nice arrow here, and I think that's what's coming. A breakout indeed. Third and final chart, just another way to draw the lines. These are subjective. That's what my eye sees. Others might see something different. But again, I think the clear setup here is a stock that is exhibiting bullish price fine correlation, impressive relative toying with the prospects of a breakout to new 52-week highs. All right, Carter, why don't you walk back here? We're back. Walk and talk. Oh, we've done that. If you overlay the fundamentals. How do we do that with the cameras that might get them on? Steady cam. Wow. That's a great job. Hopefully we can take a picture of the steady. Anyway, consumer seeking bargains. Yes, and TJ Maxx has been a monster. We talk about these names. If our crack staff in EC can give us now a five-year chart, you will see Carter, because I know you know this, we're up against the levels we saw in the summer of 2021. So the potential for a breakout is clear. There's also a potential for a massive double top in this thing. Dan? Indeed. No, that's exactly right. And one or another one has been in raw stores. Indeed breakout. So I think this goes the way of the others. Yeah, I think you want to stay away from consumer discretionary right now. All of it. Yeah, well, did you just see him chart? Was that not convincing to you? I saw it. It was amazing. But now we're talking about this K-shaped thing and guys brought this up. You know, the American Express has gotten killed. The COF has gotten killed. It just seems like a weird place to be with a consumer right now. Visa was a 52-week low today. And Maxi, Mascar and Visa, both of them, they made their all-time highs. I'm on TJX. It's not that different than their story. It's all-time high today. Sticking with it, it's not cheap though. Did you notice Visa had a 52-week low today? We did not. Dan and I talk, we all talk at various points. I guess the point you would say is there's no credit risk there, but it's like consumer transactions. Remember the transaction volume is a little lower. And compression on the fees and stuff like that. And international transactions in particular. All right, up next is final trades. It is time now for the final trade. Let's go around the horn, Carter Braxton Ward. Got to go with Burlington for the breakout. Karen Finerman. Yes, I am always locked, which I say, but I am also now long some S&P puts. Long some protection. Dan Nathan. Yeah, yesterday final trade. I thought you might see a capitulation in Nike. It did not happen. It got really bad. I'm looking to the upside here. Maybe some calls. I don't know. Don't forget, by the way, President Trump addressing the nation at 9 p.m. Three hours. Yeah, about the Iran War. Pass over. It is pass over as well. Right? Yes. We have some time to kill here. We can just sort of ramble on a bit. Well, the Mets lost for you Mets fans out there. I'm sorry. They're meandering at 500, which get used to it because that's going to be how they finish the season. Tim Seymour is watching right now. The Yankees in Seattle, Mel winning, I think four zip, not giving up a lot of runs early in the season. And my final trade for you is Viking therapeutics. Looking forward to seeing you tomorrow night, Melissa. I'm fast-money. I'm fast-money. I'm fast-money. I'm fast-money. 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